Odds Updated Monday September 21st, 2009
We’re almost at the beginning of the 2009 AFL season and now is the perfect time to get your bets on those roughies for the Charlie. Adam Cooney last year anyone?
The top 10 Brownlow vote-getters in 2008 were Adam Cooney (24), Simon Black (23), Gary Ablett & Matthew Richardson (22), Adam Goodes (21), Lance Franklin (20), Joel Selwood (19), Brent Harvey & Matthew Pavlich (17), Chris Judd & Brad Sewell (16).
Here are the current best win odds from my favourite Australian betting sites. It always pays to have accounts with multiple online bookmakers as you can see there are some huge differences in the odds for certain players, although this is much more true at the start of the year:
| Player Name (Team) |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gary Ablett (GEEL) | 2.7 | 2.85 | 2.62 |
| Dane Swan (COLL) | 4.75 | 6 | 5.5 |
| Chris Judd (CARL) | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Adam Goodes (SYD) | 8 | 7 | 7 |
| Nick Dal Santo (STK) | 9 | 9.5 | 8.50 |
| Joel Selwood (GEEL) | 11 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| Simon Black (BRIS) | 14 | 12 | 12 |
| Leigh Montagna (STK) | 11 | 15 | 13 |
| Brendon Goddard (STK) | 17 | 21 | 15 |
| Nick Riewoldt (STK) | 17 | 15 | 15 |
| Matthew Boyd (WBDG) | 21 | 15 | 19 |
| Lenny Hayes (STK) | 41 | 34 | 29 |
| Bernie Vince (ADEL) | 41 | 67 | 34 |
| Marc Murphy (CARL) | 41 | 51 | 41 |
| Scott Thompson (ADEL) | 34 | 31 | 51 |
| Jonathon Brown (BRIS) | 67 | 81 | 61 |
| Bryce Gibbs (CARL) | 51 | 81 | 67 |
| Alan Didak (COLL) | 101 | 81 | 81 |
| Leon Davis (COLL) | 251 | 201 | 126 |
| Paul Chapman (GEEL) | 251 | 301 | 151 |
Click Here for the Latest Odds on the 2009 Brownlow Medal
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{ 15 comments }
Q, the majority of the betting public thought that about Ablett last year too
He deserves to be the favourite, but he’s no guarantee to win, especially because he missed 3 games while others (Swan, Goodes, Judd etc) played all 22, and arguably have less opposition for votes from their team-mates.
As for Vince, I think he’s a good chance to get the most votes for Adelaide, maybe 17 or so, just ahead of Thompson.
im a crows supporter and those saying vince may win it…well….even though i think he’s a great player he is underated by many (including umpires)…and not that well known as the big names such as Judd gazza etc….therefore won’t win the bronwlow just purely based on that.
what r u guys stupid? im not a geeling supporter and even i know gary ablett will win it by a mile
I had a look at Goodes and he’s definitely a chance, AP, except Sydney only won 8 games – maybe he’s not going to poll in a lot of losing games? Sounds like champion data are worth taking into account for sure.
Haven’t heard of Vince, you might be right about the other Adelaide players though (‘stealing’ votes).
I think I’ll stick with Black and Boyd – the odds for the favourites are too low anyway. Still makes for an interesting vote night regardlesss hey?
Guess we’re both on the sidelines re the finals anyway (Eagles supporter!).
Dane Swan has dominated many games this year and if he doesn’t win it I think at $2 place he is good value to double your money…
It will be out of Swan, Goodes and Black. Possibly Goodes for my favourite, just because there is not one person to take votes off him, maybe O’Keefe in a couple of games. Judd will not win it and for those who have money on him I feel sorry for you cos he will NOT win the brownlow this year! ablett not enough games, selwood will poll better
Mate Im a hawthorn supporter too- that is the best example of how unpredictable punting is – if there was one team i would pick to go back to back it would be the hawks of 09, but they didnt even make the 8. If you had have told me what price would you give hawthorn to miss the 8, ii would have said 10000000 to one haha.
I too thought st kilda wouldnt be good enough, we absoloutely smashed em in the prelims last yr and i thought there isnt anyone who would improve there to they wouldnt really be a threat. I believe the saying goes ” A lot can happen in a year”
I sort of agree with you re:Son of God Ryan, but surely the umpires must feel sorry for the bloke
I really like your roughie in Vince, he has certainly had his “break-out” year, and has been what I think the stand-out player for Adelaide this season. That will be one handsome payout if he comes up for you! I do see Thompson, Edwards and even Goodwin snatching a few votes, but he will almost surely be top of the Crows. (which is currently paying $3.25 at SportingBet for those interested.
I thought long and hard about getting on Goddard at the start of the year. The things that put me off were a) I didn’t think the Saints would improve so much this year, and b) he has Hayes, Riewoldt, Montagna and Dal Santo to compete for votes with, who as it turns out, have all had pretty good seasons. There were some games where he would have surely gotten the 3 votes, in others, it’s almost pot luck.
I can understand why you’re not so confident with the Pies going all the way, but on the bright side, stranger things have happened. Essendon getting into the finals for one (I’m a Hawthorn supporter)
Gazza is a great player, but he has had a far less damaging year than last year, and has missed just as many games.
Paul Chapman had an outstanding year although only playing 16 games, in 06 he polled a handy 14 when geelong didnt even make the 8, so he could poll very well. I put 3000 on him at 38.50 to finish top 5.
My roughie this year is Bernie vince, he has had a sensational year, averaging 27 ps, 32 in his last 3. A best on in round one, theres 12 votes of the top of my head. He wont have anyone pinching votes either. I put 500 on him at 1000 to one, now he is in to 26 dollars. I also got 500 on him at 250 to one to finish top 5
My other hopeful is Brendon Goddard, 450 on him at 500 to one at the start of the yr, also in a WB multi for 237000 and a Collingwood multifor 150 000.
I got matty boyd in a multi with collingwood to win the flag to pay out 600 000 but im not so confident about the pies lol.
Haha, I know what you mean mate. I’m a bit the same, although sometimes you see odds that are so juicy it’s hard not to splurge to hedge your bets a little.
Champion Data is used by Herald Sun’s “SuperCoach” competition, here are some links with a little bit of info:
http://www.championdata.com.au/files/rankings.pdf
http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/?p=help&m=pointscoring
Using this system, Jimmy Bartel was tipped to be the outright winner in 2007, almost nailing the exact amount of votes and margin he would win by. Cooney was ranked as a top 5 chance last year. By all means this is not a definitive means of measuring Brownlow votes, and it doesn’t take into account the umpires seeming adoration of some players, but it’s something that I certainly take into account.
I got on Boyd @ $201, and Black at $67 on the 7th of April, so I’ll be happy if either of those get up
That’s interesting AP – I haven’t really looked at Goodes. I tend to stick with two or three otherwise I go nuts looking at the possibilities! He gets noticed aswell. How does the champion data point system work, and how does it correlate with the winner (or placings) in Brownlows past? I’m thinking it might not take into account umpire biases towards players. I wonder why Black’s champion data points are down this year. I have at each way anyway – so hopefully that covers it. I think I have a soft spot for hime because I won a good sum on him in ’02. Also had $5 on Boyd at $100 a while ago!
Nice observation Stevo.
Apart from Rich, Brown and maybe even Mitch Clark taking votes off him, you are right, the umpires do love him. One thing I do see though, even though his raw numbers are similar, Black’s Champion Data points are down from his best polling years. Goodes, on the other hand, has played all 22 games and is having his highest scoring year in terms of Champion Data points since he won in ’96.
Simon Black will win. He finished 2nd last year, Brisbane won only 10 games. In ’07 he finished equal 2nd (Brisbane won 9). The umps notice him big time. This year Brisbane won 12.5 and he’s got similar stats to last year. Only down-side is Daniel Rich might steal a few off him. I got him at $17 a few weeks ago. His first 2 or 3 games are not great, but after that…
Ablett’s got too many others in the team getting votes, plus the umps don’t like him. Judd hasn’t though – he’s another top ranker.
I think Ablett will be close to getting a Charlie. He probably deserves one, not to mention I got on him @ $9 before the season started
Montagna is my roughie, although there are so many Saints possibly taking votes away from him, I rate the Champion Data prediction model a little higher than most.
goodes will win