Expert Wet Track Tips for Derby Day

by Aussie Punter on October 30, 2010

in Horse Racing

IAS Bet expert racing analyst, Gerard Twomey previews the four Group One races on a huge day of racing at Flemington on Derby Day.

Victoria Derby – Race 6

The expected wet conditions will have a huge bearing on the Derby. Rekindled Interest will be very hard to beat on the strength of his win last week in the Vase at Moonee Valley. The Vase form is historically the best guide in recent years to the Derby so on that basis I expect Lion Tamer to run well also. Last week he wore blinkers for the first time, while another interesting runner is Praecido who has been targeting this race all along. Not sure how he’ll handle the wet ground, but he has been finding the line well in his races. Retrieve is popular with punters but I’m a little concerned that he has already peaked in this campaign when winning the Gloaming in Sydney, he ran well again in the Spring Champion, so I just think it could be a tough task for a young horse to peak twice in the same preparation.

Mackinnon Stakes – Race 5

Cox Plate champ So You Think is obviously the one to beat over this distance, but it will interesting to see how they ride him, with the Cup on Tuesday in mind. I expect they’ll try and ride him back and look to see him finding the line. Ginga Dude handled the ground with aplomb at Caulfield and represents great value in this race. He’ll race forward and there doesn’t appear to be a lot of speed, so he’ll give a great site at nice odds. Shocking is clearly in great form so has to be included, while Shoot Out can expect a lovely run from barrier 2. One at odds is Trusting, he’s been backed at and you can forgive his Cox Plate run where he blew the start. His best form has been on the seven day back up and the big track should suit him. Many of these runners will be fine tuning for the big one on Tuesday so this will be a very interesting race.

Myer Classic – Race 7

Typhoon Tracy is clearly the class runner in this field and she dominated this race last year. The owners abandoned the Cox Plate campaign to keep her back around the mile. She won’t want the going much worse than slow, but at her best she’ll be too good for these. Typhoon Tracy has an amazing record when she races against her own sex and she’s the one to beat. Yosei has to be given a chance. She handles the wet ground and is well treated in this company with Glen Boss aboard and the minimum of 49kg, she’ll be very competitive. Culminate is a Group One winning mare in New Zealand, she definitely handles the conditions and can race on the pace giving herself every opportunity.

Coolmore Classic – Race 4

The conditions really make this race a tricky event. Star Witness looked very good earlier in the week when trialling nicely behind gun sprinter Hay List. There’s no doubting his quality, but my only concern with him is from his inside gate he’ll settle midfield and may be placed awkwardly on the fence. Pressday has been set for this races since his winter campaign in Queensland, but being by Domesday, he’s an unknown in the wet conditions. He is going beautifully and has trialled very well. Sistine Angel has a good turn of foot, gets through the going OK and looks a value runner on recent form. Solar Charged is the likely leader and will give a big sight. He’s handled the slow before, but hasn’t raced down the straight, which might be a slight concern.

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