Gary Ablett Jnr. is once again the outright favourite for the Charlie before the 2014 AFL Premiership Season begins, and rightfully so. He is without a doubt the best player in the competition and Gold Coast are expected to improve once again this year, with more wins and more votes given to players from the Suns. The Son of Gary Ablett Snr, who many think of as one of the greatest and most spectacular players of all could go back-to-back and win his third Brownlow, becoming the fifth person to do so and also bringing his total to three more than his father who surely must be close to conceding that his son is as good, if not better than he was as an AFL footballer.
2014 Brownlow Medal Betting Tips & Advice
It’s never easy to predict the winner of the Brownlow Medal, sometimes it seems the umpires interpret the game completely differently to every other expert sports analyzer and us regular punters, however there is a strong correlation between the players who are proven match winners, such as “Gaz” and the votes which umpires give out at the end of each game. Another important tip for predicting the Brownlow Medal winner is looking at the recent voting history of a player, and Ablett has a strong voting history, winning the medal in 2009 and 2013. You can find the top 10 vote-winners from recent years on my Brownlow Medal Betting Tips page.
Of course there is an element of risk with every single online or offline bet we place, but one very important tip for betting on the Brownlow Medal is that a single suspension will make that player ineligible for the award, even if they finish the season with the most votes. For this reason alone, betting on players who have a history with the tribunal is extremely risky. Another major risk is that a single long-term injury, which can happen to any player at any time will almost certainly rule out the chance of winning the Brownlow. Even the best player in the Australian Football League, no matter how dominant he has been that year.
Right now is the perfect time to place bets on outsiders, smokies or “roughies” who I’d expect to improve this year and get more recognition from the umpires and in turn, more Brownlow votes.
My Thoughts & Predictions for 2014
2014 might be the year that some great players become elite such as Nathan Fyfe, the best player on the ground for Fremantle in the 2013 Grand Final loss, Kieran Jack, the young star and co-captain of the Sydney Swans. However, Jack has a lot of competition from his teammates including Josh Kennedy, Daniel Hannebery, Adam Goodes and new team-mate Lance Franklin. Brisbane Lions most exciting young player Tom Rockliff polled 21 votes in 2013, a year which Brisbane managed just 10 wins for the season. If the Lions can get more wins on the board, I would expect Rockliff, who polled the maximum 3 votes in 5 games last year to poll even better this year.
With Chris Judd polling extremely poorly last year, the door is open for Carlton’s current captain Marc Murphy to continue improving and become one of the AFL’s elite midfielders. The captain of Geelong and 2013 runner-up Joel Selwood is not without a chance and is paying good odds. Geelong have plenty of capable young players coming through, as shown last year when they were just a kick away from a Grand Final. The Cats should definitely win enough games to go deep into the finals yet again which will give Selwood plenty of chances to win 3 votes. Selwood’s main threat is Steve Johnson who arguably had a career best year last year, which may have cost Selwood his first Brownlow.
Is it finally time for one of the game’s established stars to finally win a Brownlow Medal? Players such as Scott Pendlebury, who’s been very unfortunate in a way by playing alongside prolific ball winner and 2011 Brownlow Medalist Dane Swan.
There is a very good reason why Patrick Dangerfield is second favourite, he’s one of the most explosive and damaging midfielders in the competition who also happens to be the undisputed AFL Grand Final day sprint champion. Dangerfield finished 3rd in the 2013 Brownlow count including 6 games where he polled the maximum 3 votes. Tigers captain Trent Cotchin is undoubtedly one of Richmond’s most damaging players, if the Tigers can finish higher than 9th (or beaten by the 9th placed team in the finals) he is a good chance to poll more than 19 votes this year.
If you do your research, and pick the Brownlow winner before the AFL Premiership Season begins, you can get yourself some very juicy odds. After the first few games, the odds for every player who jumps out of the blocks drops dramatically.
One thing I look for is how the player finished off the previous season, how they are tracking in the preseason, taking note of any injuries or other setbacks which could prevent them from having a great start to the year. Finding break-out players in young and improving teams with a chance to win more games than they lose is also solid advice. Any stand out player in one of these types of teams is gold when it comes to finding that perfect mix of good odds and a reasonable chance of wearing the prestigious medallion around their neck at the end of the year.
Odds for the Top Brownlow Medal Contenders
These odds from my favourite Australian online bookmakers were current as of the 26th of January, 2014 before the 2014 AFL NAB Cup & Premiership Season began. You will find that these online bookies will generally offer much better odds than the TAB, plus you can bet wherever you are from your PC or mobile device.
If you’re looking for good value all around, SportingBet Australia have some of the best odds for most players, SportsBet consistently have great competitions including the FREE TO ENTER NRL & AFL Million Dollar Tipping Competition, with $20,000 to win each round, plus tons of special offers and unique betting options.
If you just want to get the best odds on Gary Ablett to win before the season begins, Bet365 is offering the best odds for Gary Ablett to become the first back-to-back Brownlow Medalist since Robert Harvey in ’97 & ’98. As usual, the best odds are listed in bold text.
|Josh Kennedy [Syd]||26||51.15||31||26||31||26||26||31|
These odds were correct at the time of posting and are subject to change.
I will not be updating the odds on this page as the season progresses as I find that it’s always interesting on Brownlow Medal night to look back at the odds that were available at the start of the year, before the season begins. It often goes to show that if you have done your homework, looked at the historical polling data, raw statistics and used some good judgement, the odds for the winner(s) and place-getters in the preseason can often be interesting to look back on historically.
My tip for the 2014 Brownlow: I think if Gary Ablett stays fit and doesn’t get suspended will win. I’m happily betting on him at fixed odds of $7.50 and I expect to watch as his odds go down to even money as the season progresses. It’s very possible he will then be beaten by one vote in a nail-biting finish as he polls zero votes in the last game of the year, only needing 1 to win, but that’s gambling.
Good Luck, and Happy Punting!