2015 AFL Brownlow Medal Betting Odds

2015 AFL Brownlow Medal Betting Odds, Favourites & Free Tips

by Aussie Punter on February 25, 2015

in AFL

This year is a great year for getting some great value on the winner of one of the most prestigious individual awards in Australian Rules Football, the Chas Brownlow Medal.

My Free Brownlow Medal Betting Tips

Hopefully by now we’re all over the shock of Matty Priddis’ well deserved but largely unexpected win last year, we move on to this year with some emerging young players who could definitely grab more of the umpires attention and maybe knock one or two of the older players off the mantle as being their teams’ most important player, at least in the eyes of the umpires.

The Brownlow Favourites Who Deserve It

The first few names that immediately come to mind when trying to predict the Brownlow Medal winner are the obvious stalwarts who have attracted lots of Brownlow votes in recent years such as previous winners Gary Ablett, Dane Swan, Jobe Watson and perennial place-getters Sam Mitchell and Joel Selwood. I’m not just going for the first thing that comes to mind though.

There’s no doubting Gary Ablett is still the best player in the league. While he is getting on in years, he’s showing no signs of slowing down. Even though he’s the outright favourite paying around $5, you probably won’t get any better odds at any other time of the year. After going down with a season ending injury in round 16 last year, he was 5 votes clear of everyone else in the competition. He is that much better and deserves to be the favourite to win. If you want to bet on him, my advice would be to bet on him now.

I like the look of Fremantle this year, who could afford to drop their star recruit Colin Sylvia to the WAFL for “failing to meet the clubs expectations”. If Freo have a good year, there is a good chance that young Nathan Fyfe could again poll well into the 20’s and there’s an equally good chance that he could be wearing a Brownlow Medal around his neck the week before the Grand Final.

Geelong are a team that consistently defy the odds and naysayers, people have been saying that they were past it and no chance to win a flag for several years now, but again they came within a whisker of a Preliminary final last year. Their captain and arguably their most consistent player Joel Selwood is still only 26 years old and has finished in the top 3 Brownlow vote count for the last 2 years. Definitely a chance but his odds are too short for my liking.

My Top 3 Up and Coming Brownlow Contenders

Robbie Gray was one of the most consistent performers at the tail end of last season and he finished 2014 1st in goal assists. Power captain, Travis Boak got most of the umpires attention but punters were flocking to Gray in droves towards the end of the year. He finished with a respectable 14 votes, however he only polled 3 votes once. If he can impress the umpires a little more and Port stay around the mark, which most are expecting, I think he’s a good chance with decent odds.

The two Brisbane Lions cubs received over 30 votes between them last year although one was at a different club. Tom Rockliff (15 Votes last year) and Dayne Beams (16 Votes last year whilst playing for Collingwood) are both 25 years old and are in the prime years of their respective careers, both have plenty of upside. The Lions should improve this year and if they can win the majority of their home games and snatch a few away games, I can see them making the eight. This could potentially provide one of these two young stars enough wins to end up with a Brownlow Medal at the end of the year and they’re both reasonably good value.

Players Whose Clubs May Make it Too Hard to Win

If there’s only one thing that Essendon fans can be happy about, it’s the improvement shown by Dyson Heppell. While there is definitely some uncertainty as to what will happen with Essendon this year, there’s no doubting the talent that this kid has shown and I think he’s going to be even better this year. It’s the uncertainty surrounding the Bombers that puts me off Heppell.

If Collingwood are to improve their ladder position, they’ll need Scott Pendlebury to step up even more. Swan is aging and his numbers were well down from his best last year, I doubt he’ll be able to have the impact on games he once had. They’ve also lost Dayne Beams to Brisbane. Pendles is a true match winner but will the Pies win enough games for him to earn a Brownlow?

Finally, the Sydney Swans, how they manage to fit all their stars in their salary cap is astonishing and we must give their football department credit for their aggressive trading and brilliant talent development. Personally, I would be wary about picking a player from a team such as Sydney, there are just so many quality players in that team who will share the votes.

Josh Kennedy, Luke Parker, Lance Franklin and Dan Hannebery are all in the top favourites to win the Charlie this year. This doesn’t necessarily mean that one of them won’t win, but personally I’d be looking elsewhere for value.

With the pre season about to begin, the players you may have had an eye on for a role change, especially the younger players who are now coming into their own in aging midfielders are likely to gain other punters, and bookmakers attention. Read all of the AFL team news and club training reports, especially if they mention any player that you’re considering having a punt on before you place any bets on the Brownlow. You want to make sure that any player you’re considering betting on to win the Charlie has had a good pre season that’s been uninterrupted. This simple tip is often overlooked by punters, but I think it’s important that whoever you’re betting on has had a solid, injury free pre season.

My final tip: If you browse through the lists of each club, you should be able to find the standout Brownlow vote getters in most teams, at least narrow it down to the top two or three. Do you think they’ll improve as a player this year or go backwards? What about their team?

Best Odds for the Brownlow Medal Favourites

As usual, the best odds are listed in bold text.

Player NameLadbrokes AustraliaCrownBetWilliam Hill AustraliaBookmaker.com.auCentreBetLuxBetTom WaterhouseBet365
Gary Ablett5.
Nathan Fyfe8.007.507.
Joel Selwood10119.00109.00109.009.00
Patrick Dangerfield11131211129.001211
Josh P Kennedy2112212121152117
Luke Parker2117212121212117
Scott Pendlebury2117172117151717
Tom Rockliff2121212121212121
Trent Cotchin2121172117171726
Dane Swan2626412641414151
Dyson Heppell2634262626262626
Jobe Watson2617212621152121
Lance Franklin2621212621262121
Matt Priddis2634262626262621
Robbie Gray2621342634263423
Travis Boak2621262626262626
Dayne Beams3121263126342626
Jordan Lewis3123343134343426
Sam Mitchell3126213121212123
Andrew Swallow415141414110141101
Daniel Hannebery4134414141514167

These odds were correct at the time of posting and are subject to change.

Good Luck, and Happy Punting!
Aussie Punter

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