Oze Punting Blog

In order to get any kind of value from betting on the Coleman Medal, you really need to get your bets on before the season gets underway. My tip for 2010 is Hawthorn’s Lance Franklin, not just because I’m a Hawthorn supporter either.

Hawthorn will undoubtedly improve their delivery into the forward line this year with Sam Mitchell looking a million dollars, a fitter than ever Jordan Lewis running around & an injury-free Luke Hodge who looks set to spend a lot more time in the guts during 2010. The addition of Shaun Burgoyne to their list will help them win more clearances, and the young excitement machine Cyril Rioli is rumoured to spend some time in the midfield as well. According to this years AFL Prospectus, Champion Data general manager Tim Kelsey says Rioli is the best kick in the AFL. Finally, Buddy has lost a few kilo’s and had a much better pre-season. All signs point to yes for mine.

Fev deserves to be up there, however we’re yet to see if Brown and Fev can work together in the forward line. I don’t think Sydney are good enough for Bradshaw to win it, and their game style doesn’t generally involve lots of goals. For the roughies, I think Roughead (sic), Barry Hall (if he remembers this is football not boxing) and Riewoldt are good value.

Player Name
Lance Franklin	4	4.5	4.75	4.5
Brendan Fevola	4	3.75	4	3.75
Daniel Bradshaw	11	12	9	9
Jonathan Brown	13	13	13	12
Matthew Pavlich	15	11	13	11
Jarryd Roughead	16	14	15	16
Barry Hall	17	21	13	21
Kurt Tippett	21	19	21	21
Nick Riewoldt	26	17	17	21
Jason Porplyzia	26	34	26	21
Mark Lecras	26	21	21	17
John Anthony	34	34	41	21
Justin Koschitzke	41	34	34	51
Tom Hawkins	51	51	51	67
Quinten Lynch	51	51	67	NA
Cameron Mooney	61	67	41	41
Warren Tredrea	61	67	NA	41
Mark Williams	67	41	51	67
Cyril Rioli	67	41	41	81
Liam Jurrah	67	67	67	67
Luke Mcpharlin	81	101	NA	NA
Adam Goodes	81	51	81	126
Brett Deledio	81	81	101	NA
Travis Cloke	101	51	67	126
Gary Ablett Jnr.	151	81	67	126
Paul Medhurst	201	67	NA	251

These odds are current as of 15th of February and are subject to change. I will be updating the odds periodically throughout the season.

Let me know your thoughts in the comments.

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Here they are, the latest odds for the NAB Cup. I see some value in the $10+ teams here including Brisbane, Collingwood and Carlton.

Teams
Geelong	5	5	5
St Kilda	5	5.5	5
Adelaide	8	7.5	8
Western Bulldogs	8	8	8
Hawthorn	9	8.5	9
Brisbane	14	12	14
Collingwood	14	14	14
Carlton	15	15	15
Sydney	16	21	16
West Coast	16	13	15
Fremantle	26	26	26
Port Adelaide	26	19	21
Essendon	31	31	26
North Melbourne	41	26	34
Richmond	41	41	26
Melbourne	51	51	41

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Here they are, the best online bookmaker odds for the Melbourne Cup. Not only do you avoid the queues when you place your bets online, but you also get better odds than the TAB the majority of the time. Pick your horse, pick the best odds and get on the 2009 Melbourne Cup.

#	Horse (Barrier)	Jockey	Weight
1	Viewed (9)	B Rawiller	58	5.00	4.60	4.85	4.80
2	C’est La Guerre (7)	Nicholas Hall	55.5	31.00	31.00	26.00	26.00
3	Fiumicino (24)	S R King	55.5	71.00	81.00	67.00	81.00
4	Master O’reilly (16)	V Duric	55	12.00	12.00	14.00	12.00
5	Mourilyan (14)	G Schofield	54.5	21.00	26.00	21.00	21.00
6	Roman Emperor (15)	J Bowman	54	9.00	8.50	8.50	9.00
7	Ista Kareem (23)	L Nolen	53.5	81.00	81.00	101.00	81.00
8	Crime Scene (11)	K Mc Evoy	53	41.00	51.00	41.00	41.00
9	Munsef (5)	Z Purton	53	51.00	61.00	51.00	51.00
10	Zavite (3)	M Zahra	53	81.00	71.00	51.00	61.00
11	Alcopop (12)	D Tourneur	52.5	5.50	5.00	5.00	5.00
12	Harris Tweed (20)	C Newitt	52.5	126.00	121.00	101.00	101.00
13	Kibbutz (8)	Chris Symons	52.5	71.00	71.00	71.00	81.00
14	Newport (18)	Peter Wells	52.5	41.00	41.00	41.00	41.00
15	Warringah (17)	D Oliver	52.5	31.00	31.00	26.00	31.00
16	Gallions Reach (6)	D Dunn	52	201.00	201.00	201.00	251.00
17	Spin Around (4)	M R Du Plessis	52	201.00	201.00	201.00	251.00
18	Basaltico (10)	D Nikolic	51.5	21.00	21.00	26.00	26.00
19	Capecover (19)	N G Harris	51.5	81.00	81.00	101.00	81.00
20	Daffodil (21)	C Munce	51.5	14.00	13.00	13.00	13.00
21	Shocking (22)	C W Brown	51	11.00	10.00	11.00	10.00
22	Allez Wonder (13)	Ms Michelle Payne	50.5	31.00	31.00	21.00	31.00
23	Changingoftheguard (1)	G Boss	50.5	SCR	SCR	SCR	SCR
24	Leica Ding (2)	Craig Williams	50.5	21.00	21.00	26.00	21.00

It looks like there’s a few showers around Flemington today, and the track is rated as DEAD(5), keep that in mind when picking your horses. I think I’ll be going for a few trifectas. Good luck, and happy punting!

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Here is the official field for the race we’ve all been waiting for. The 2009 Emirates Melbourne Cup, raced over 3,200 metres.

Click Here to Punt on the ‘09 Melb. Cup

Bet on the 2009 Melbourne Cup

Whether you’re a pro punter who’s read all the form available, or if you just pick your favourite jockey, number or colour, maybe you will use some kind of guide that teaches you how to win the Melbourne Cup, good luck and happy punting!

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The ‘09 Caulfield Cup to be held on 17th October is less than a week away now, so it’s a perfect time to get the fixed odds up on the site. Speed Gifted looks to be punters choice at the moment, just ahead of Predatory Pricer and early fav. Vigor and Cima De Triomphe both at $9. By the looks of it, it’s going to be a pretty wet track come the weekend, so make sure you take that into account before getting on.

It would be a good idea to keep an eye on some of the others if you’re scouting a Melbourne Cup winner to see how they finish off the Caulfield Cup.

These odds are from SportsBet who are offering some very healthy fixed odds. They are current as at 9:00am on Monday the 12th and are subject to fluctuation.

Good luck, and happy punting!

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The wait is finally over, the last Saturday in September is nearly upon us. This years Grand Final is certainly between the top 2 teams of the season, Geelong and St Kilda. The Saints and the Cats were both undefeated when they met in round 14 and we were given a spectacular game in which St Kilda snatched victory in the very last minute in what many have called the game of the season. Will the Grand Final be as close?

With their loss to Hawthorn last year, Geelong seem to have learned a valuable lesson and they look to have peaked just at the right time, thrashing Collingwood in the Qualifying Final by more than 12 goals. St Kilda, on the other hand have started to look a little shaky, struggling in a low-scoring match against the Bulldogs.

2009 AFL Grand Final Betting Odds

My tip is Geelong, their premiership window is closing and I think they’ll simply be too strong for St. Kilda if they’ve got their kicking boots on.

2009 Grand Final Head to Head
St Kilda Geelong	2.40 1.59	2.35 1.62	2.35 1.60	2.40 1.58

2009 Norm Smith Betting Odds

I have tipped 2 players from each team. if Geelong wins, it will be out of Ablett or Selwood. If the Saints cause an upset, captain Nick Riewoldt will probably get the medal. It’s hard to leave out Hayes, Montagna and Dal Santo, but I’ve chosen the good odds of game breaker Brendan Goddard.

2009 Norm Smith Medal
G Ablett (Geel)	6	6	6	6
N Riewoldt (St K)	9	8	8	10
L Hayes (St K)	11	13	9	11
J Selwood (Geel)	13	13	11	13
N Dal Santo (St K)	13	13	13	13
B Goddard (St K)	17	17	13	18
L Montagna (St K)	15	15	13	14
J Corey (Geel)	13	13	13	13
J Bartel (Geel)	11	13	13	9
P Chapman (Geel)	12	13	13	11
S Johnson (Geel)	17	15	15	17
C Enright (Geel)	17	17	17	18
S Fisher (St K)	21	26	21	23
J Koschitzke (St K)	23	34	26	31
M Scarlett (Geel)	34	34	29	31
C Mooney (Geel)	29	34	29	31
C Ling (Geel)	34	34	34	31
D Milburn (Geel)	41	34	34	41
J Gram (St K)	34	34	36	41
S Gilbert (St K)	51	41	36	41

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It’s about time for me to start researching the 2009 Melbourne Cup, so I thought I’d put up a list of the very early betting odds for the race to be held on Tuesday November 3rd, 2009. As of the 8th of September, these odds from IAS Bet are correct. I will be updating these fixed price odds several times as the field gets finalized.

Note: All-in betting, which means if your horse doesn’t make the final field, there are no refunds. It is often well worth a punt if you do your homework.

Bet on the 2009 Melbourne Cup at IASBet

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Odds Updated Monday September 21st, 2009

We’re almost at the beginning of the 2009 AFL season and now is the perfect time to get your bets on those roughies for the Charlie. Adam Cooney last year anyone?

The top 10 Brownlow vote-getters in 2008 were Adam Cooney (24), Simon Black (23), Gary Ablett & Matthew Richardson (22), Adam Goodes (21), Lance Franklin (20), Joel Selwood (19), Brent Harvey & Matthew Pavlich (17), Chris Judd & Brad Sewell (16).

Here are the current best win odds from my favourite Australian betting sites. It always pays to have accounts with multiple online bookmakers as you can see there are some huge differences in the odds for certain players, although this is much more true at the start of the year:

Player Name (Team)
Gary Ablett (GEEL)	2.7	2.85	2.62	2.50
Dane Swan (COLL)	4.75	6	5.5	5
Chris Judd (CARL)	7	7	7	8
Adam Goodes (SYD)	8	7	7	8
Nick Dal Santo (STK)	9	9.5	8.50	11
Joel Selwood (GEEL)	11	8.5	8.5	13
Simon Black (BRIS)	14	12	12	14
Leigh Montagna (STK)	11	15	13	13
Brendon Goddard (STK)	17	21	15	26
Nick Riewoldt (STK)	17	15	15	15
Matthew Boyd (WBDG)	21	15	19	26
Lenny Hayes (STK)	41	34	29	41
Bernie Vince (ADEL)	41	67	34	41
Marc Murphy (CARL)	41	51	41	67
Scott Thompson (ADEL)	34	31	51	51
Jonathon Brown (BRIS)	67	81	61	81
Bryce Gibbs (CARL)	51	81	67	126
Alan Didak (COLL)	101	81	81	101
Leon Davis (COLL)	251	201	126	251
Paul Chapman (GEEL)	251	301	151	201

Click Here for the Latest Odds on the 2009 Brownlow Medal

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Last week was another pretty easy week for tipping, unfortunately Carlton didn’t do much, and Richmond shocked most punters around the country by defeating the hard-to-see-making-the-finals Essendon. In what turned out to be the game of the round, Hawthorn lost to Geelong by a point when Brownlow medal winner Jimmy Bartel kicked a behind after the siren. The rest of the favourites got up, so not much value was to be had.

Coming in to the pointy end of the season, we’re not seeing as many games that could go either way. The teams with no chance to make the 8 are basically shutting up shop for the year, playing the kids and hoping for no injuries. There is still a battle for the last couple of spots in the final 8 up for grabs though, which makes the game between Port Adelaide and Hawthorn particularly interesting. Going on last weeks form, you could say just give the 4 points to Hawthorn now, but as we all know well, a lot can change in 1 week of footy. Both teams will be sore after last weeks matches, and Port are value playing at home.

As per usual, my tips are in bold, along with the best available odds for each team.

Teams
Kangaroos Carlton	3.45 1.33	3.50 1.32	3.50 1.31	3.50 1.33
Bulldogs Freo	1.04 12.00	1.04 12.00	1.03 12.50	1.03 13.00
Geelong Adelaide	1.26 4.00	1.26 4.00	1.25 4.00	1.25 4.05
Sydney St. Kilda	6.00 1.13	6.25 1.13	6.25 1.12	6.00 1.13
Collingwood Brisbane	1.39 3.10	1.38 3.10	1.37 3.10	1.38 3.25
Melbourne Richmond	3.40 1.33	3.50 1.32	3.45 1.48	3.50 1.31
Port Adelaide Hawthorn	2.80 1.45	2.65 1.48	2.65 1.48	2.80 1.46
West Coast Essendon	2.75 1.45	2.90 1.43	2.75 1.45	2.95 1.41

Good luck, and happy punting!

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As I tweeted, last round was pretty straight-forward. The only real upset was Hawthorn finding form against Collingwood, and the draw between Richmond and North Melbourne put a bit of a spanner in the works. In hindsight, I should have taken into account Hawthorn’s good recent record against the Pies, but that’s footy. I guess I was wrong with the call on the Kangaroos, I said it could really go either way, yet, it didn’t. Haha. Most of my multi’s came through and I had a good, profitable weekend. I hope your bets paid off!

This week looks a lot tougher, but I see some value in a few games. I’ve tipped the majority of the home teams this week, except for Melbourne against Sydney at Manuka Oval. Carlton have beaten Collingwood in their past 3 encounters, and Chris Judd looks back to his best. My tip is for Fevola to have a day out and kick the winning score in a close match.

Fremantle should be too strong for West Coast, and I think anything over $1.60 is good value. If Sandilands is back in, which is almost a given, Freo should win most of the hitouts and clearances. It looks to me like the Eagles are entering “list management” mode, so it could be a big margin.

Here are the rest of my tips in bold, along with the best available odds for each team.

Teams
Carlton Collingwood	2.10 1.75	2.08 1.75	2.05 1.75	2.12 1.73
Geelong Hawthorn	1.25 4.10	1.25 4.00	1.24 4.00	1.26 4.00
Fremantle West Coast	1.70 2.20	1.67 2.20	1.65 2.20	1.71 2.15
Brisbane Kangaroos	1.14 6.00	1.15 5.50	1.13 5.75	1.13 6.00
St. Kilda Bulldogs	1.55 2.50	1.57 2.40	1.52 2.50	1.53 2.53
Melbourne Sydney	2.40 1.58	2.40 1.58	2.45 1.54	2.42 1.57
Essendon Richmond	1.30 3.65	1.30 3.55	1.29 3.50	1.30 3.65
Adelaide Port Adelaide	1.57 2.45	1.57 2.40	1.55 2.42	1.57 2.42

Good luck, and happy punting!

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