1 out of 3 last week, not my greatest this year. The Kangaroos prevailed against Essendon, but West Coast without Cox were absolutely smashed in the ruck, and subsequently, the scores aswell. Hawthorn took a handy lead early in the match, and appeared to be in control of the game, but their inexperience saw that lead dwindle away to nothing in less than 15 minutes. To their credit, they did fight back to keep the scores close, but lost it in the final term.
There’s some close matches being played this week, but I like the look of the home games for the Kangaroos and Sydney, who should bounce back after being beaten by the Saints.
I had to go away last weekend and I was without access to a computer, sorry for not getting any tips up.
Some very close matches again this week which will be hard to pick a definite winner. The first one is a perfect example. The Kangaroos are flying after upsetting most punters when they defeated Sydney last week, while Essendon, after starting the season well have shown some disappointing performances of late, possibly due to Lloyd’s injury. Both are paying $1.97 to win, and with the Kangaroos playing well and having had the better of the Bombers in recent years, I’m going to be having a punt on them.
Geelong are the surprise favourites to end West Coast’s unbeaten season after absolutely thrashing Richmond last week, and while the Cats are playing at home on their unique ground, I don’t think they are quite up to the task. I’ll be backing the Eagles to win at $2.00, in a game that I expect to be very close.
Didn’t Hawthorn prove me wrong, or should I say, didn’t Lance Franklin prove me wrong. I honestly believed without the accuracy or Hawthorn’s leading goal kicker, Mark Williams, the very young Hawks would struggle to win many more games for the season. Lance stepped up last week to boot 9 goals, five of which came in a 15 minute burst in the second quarter to beat the Bombers, and they’re sitting pretty in the top 8 at the moment. On the other hand, Freo haven’t been playing up to what was expected of them this year. I don’t think I’ll put this one on myself, but at odds of $2.80 to win, Hawthorn are a chance.
What a start to the round. Collingwood upset Essendon on Anzac day, congratulations if you had a punt on the Pies who proved to be too strong at very good odds. In other news, Hawthorn’s top goal scorer Mark Williams is out with a knee injury for up to 8 weeks, Akermanis and Cross are back for the bulldogs and Nick Davis is back from injury for the Swans. With Williams out, Cross and Aka back in - I can’t see the Hawks winning this one and the bulldogs at $1.57 is a decent return. My other tip for the week is once again Adelaide, paying $2.20 to win playing against Fremantle.
Essendon are the definitive favourites going into today’s Anzac Day clash paying just $1.39 to win, while Collingwood are giving nice odds of $3.05, however I think the Bombers will be too strong for the Pies so I’ll leave this one alone.
Looking at the odds this week, there’s not alot of value going around. Collingwood V Port should be a close game, I expect the Pies to come home so I may put a small punt on them.
The slow starting Sydney don’t have a good record in Adelaide, but I can’t discount them just yet. It should be a tight game, but I think the Crows will be too strong in the end, small bet at $1.80. Fremantle really should have no trouble beating a depleted Melbourne side, but I would want a bit more than $1.48.
Finally, the Hawks have a chance to win on Sunday. They beat the Cats by large margins both times the teams met last year, and they’re playing at Tassie which is a very large ground that Geelong have never played on. That being said, Geelong have a much stronger looking forward line this year, and arguably Hawthorn’s best defender Trent Croad is out. If the odds were better I would get on the Hawks.
The odds are reflecting pretty much what one would expect this week, but the first match Collingwood (coming back from Perth) Vs. Richmond (Troy Simmonds back) could be a good one to get on. Richmond at $2.10 for the win is certainly not guaranteed, but I think there’s some value to be had.
West Coast should be able to defeat Freo in the Western Derby, at odds of $1.78 it looks like a decent punt. The rest of the games don’t offer much value that I can see, meaning the underpriced favourites should come home, and be a pretty easy week of Footy Tipping. We all know that’s never a certainty, but to me this week looks much better than the first two.
Essendon Vs. Fremantle is a tough one, with Lloyd back for the bombers and adefeating Adelaide last week, they look in good shape. While the very promising Fremantle side getting done by Port Adelaide in the same round, we’ve definitely not seen the best of them. I think Fremantle playing at home would certainly have it in the bag, but in Melbourne, I’m not too sure. The odds reflect my thinking too, as they’re both paying about $1.90 for the win. The other notable mention this week is the Bulldogs playing host to Adelaide, coming off that upset loss last week, can they prove themselves to be the team we all think they are? Adelaide are paying $3.10 to win, and this one is certainly one to consider.
After an interrupted season last year, we’re back for the 2007 AFL Home and Away season.
In the season opener, St. Kilda defeated Melbourne last night which would have been great value for money, Melbourne were the favourite’s but played a very average game, the Saints were much too strong for the Dees and ended up in front by more than 5 goals at full time. There’s one other match this week that I think offers some value, Sydney Swans vs. West Coast Eagles. These two sides have a history of very close games, and I don’t think this one will be much different. Can the Eagles get over all of the off ground pressure and upset the Swans? I think they’re a chance, and with odds of $2.53 to win, it might be worth a punt.
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The first four matches of the mid-year split round have all been relatively easy for the winning teams. Adelaide totally outclassed St Kilda who benefited greatly in the conditions last week against the Eagles. Geelong fired up and defeated Fremantle by 11 goals at Subiaco, the Bulldogs beat the Lions by 42 points in a high scoring game, while Port Adelaide continued their winning form at AAMI Stadium against the Eagles.
The matches for today look like they are going to continue the easy wins, with Essendon taking on Melbourne and Hawthorn playing Richmond.
I think the Dees ($1.18) will enjoy a comfortable win over the Bombers, while the Tigers ($1.34) should not be troubled by the struggling Hawks.
West Coast were lucky to win last week, but they did get the points in the end. Melbourne were too good for the Saints, and Collingwood, as predicted, were too good for Brisbane.
There’s not much on offer this week, The Demons against the Pies and Richmond V Kangaroos should both be close games, and the other games this week are probably going the way of the fav’s.
Fremantle has a decent chance against a heavily injured Bulldogs side, apart from that, I don’t see much value here.
