Oze Punting Blog

The first four matches of the mid-year split round have all been relatively easy for the winning teams. Adelaide totally outclassed St Kilda who benefited greatly in the conditions last week against the Eagles. Geelong fired up and defeated Fremantle by 11 goals at Subiaco, the Bulldogs beat the Lions by 42 points in a high scoring game, while Port Adelaide continued their winning form at AAMI Stadium against the Eagles.

The matches for today look like they are going to continue the easy wins, with Essendon taking on Melbourne and Hawthorn playing Richmond.

I think the Dees ($1.18) will enjoy a comfortable win over the Bombers, while the Tigers ($1.34) should not be troubled by the struggling Hawks.

This is it. We are taking on the world champs of soccer. Can we defeat the world’s most hyped soccer team? Punters don’t think so, us Aussies are paying $10 to win, and a decent $6.50 for the draw. The Brazilians are easy favourites, paying $1.21 to beat our Socceroos.
The time to beat them is now, having only played one game which, in my opinion, they were very lucky to win. They’re not in the best form, on the other hand, we’ve just come off a heart-lifting victory over Japan, even after the umpire awarded a goal which should not have counted.

I don’t think we have a better chance than now of knocking off the current World Cup favourites. It won’t be easy, but our playing team and our coach will surely be ready for a tough match, and after watching our effort against Japan, I think our team is finally ready to take on the world.
Click Here to bet on the 2006 World Cup

West Coast were lucky to win last week, but they did get the points in the end. Melbourne were too good for the Saints, and Collingwood, as predicted, were too good for Brisbane.

There’s not much on offer this week, The Demons against the Pies and Richmond V Kangaroos should both be close games, and the other games this week are probably going the way of the fav’s.

Fremantle has a decent chance against a heavily injured Bulldogs side, apart from that, I don’t see much value here.

Sandown

The prestigious Group 1 Sandown Laurels series kicks off next week with an expected 12 heats to be contested on Thursday night. Widely regarded as the pinnacle event for female greyhounds, the Laurels has been won by many top chasers such as Cheltenam Lass (1965), Winifred Bale (1982), Sandi’s Me Mum (1989) and more recently Moonambel Gem (1997), Hail A Harley (2001) and Paua To Burn (2004).

Sandown Park’s Michael Floyd has confirmed that top Queensland trainers Tony Brett and Tony Zammit have made enquiries about trialling greyhounds at Sandown Park in preparation for the Laurels. The series is for females whelped between March 1, 2004 and February 28, 2005 and carries a winner’s cheque of $50,000.

—

Explosive beginner IMPISHLEE has won five of her 11 starts to date and she has had four starts over 525m at The Meadows for three wins and a placing. The Andrea Dailly-trained daughter of Brett Lee and Impargo is engaged in a mixed stake over 525m at The Meadows this Saturday night and she should prove hard to beat.

IMPISHLEE won three races in May, two of which were at The Meadows in 30.27 and 30.12 and the other was at Warrnambool in a scintillating 25.25.

The Meadows

SPITFIRE JET returns to Victoria after scoring a smart win at Cannington (WA) recently in 30.66. Trained by Daryl Williams, the black speedster won his first two starts at Sandown Park in March when taking out a maiden heat and final in 30.09 and 30.24.

SPITFIRE JET has won five of his seven career starts and he looks hard to beat at Sandown Park this Thursday night where he’ll line up in a Grade 5 stake over 515 metres against the likes of talented NSW-bred pair CURIOUS LEE and JOSH’S WHISKY.

Statistics from Ballarat for 2006

Percentage of The Watchdog’s first selections that win:

450m - 37.67%
550m - 33.33%
650m - 37.50%

Percentage of TAB favourites that win:

No. of favourites that win - 43.79%
No. of 2nd favourites that win - 20.43%
No. of 3rd favourites that win - 15.32%
No. with longest odds that win - 1.45%

Position of winners at first section:

Winners leading at first section - 52.94%
Winners positioned 2nd at first section - 20.95%
Winners positioned 3rd at first section - 13.60%
Winners positioned 4th or worse at first section - 12.51%

Port got up and beat Essendon quite comfortably by ten goals in the end. Unfortunately, Brisbane were too good for Fremantle, beating them by more than 11 goals. Richmond continued their winning form, beating the struggling Cats.
Onto this week:

I think West Coast at $1.78 is a good price, the Melbourne v St. Kilda game will be tough, and the odds for the Saints are worthy of a small bet. And finally Collingwood, with the way they’re playing, should easily have it over the Lions.