Oze Punting Blog

The odds suggest this week will be pretty easy for those involved in footy tipping comps around Australia, there’s not a lot of value to be had on straight out win bets. All the home teams, bar Port Adelaide playing Fremantle are rightful short favourites. I do, however, think there is value to be had for Port Adelaide, the Bulldogs and Melbourne.

My first bet would be for the Power to beat the Dockers. Port have a lot more to lose than Freo, and I think they’ll get up in a reasonably close game.

Second bet this week will be the two top-scoring sides in the competition. Hawthorn are still without a lot of run from the half back line, missing Guerra with a hamstring injury, not to mention the lack of Hodge and Crawford in the middle. The Western Bulldogs have so many avenues to goal and down at the larger than average Aurora Stadium, should find their way to the big sticks plenty of times. If they can hold Buddy and Roughead to only a few goals each, the Doggies can win this one.

And the long-shot for the week. The Dees - IF they can repeat the form they showed last week for David Neitz’ retirement are a chance to upset the Saints.

Here are the current best odds for betting on the footy.

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There’s a couple of stand out bets for me this week. Sydney are a hard team to beat no matter where they’re playing, and have had it over the Power in recent times beating them in their last three encounters. I think these odds are very good for a game that I believe will be very close.

Carlton should beat Freo at home at the Dome, and the odds look decent enough to have a bet. My tip is for Fevola to kick a bag of goals while Pavlich spends too much time in the midfield.

If you’re looking for a long shot, the Kangaroos are never an easy side to beat, and the Bulldogs were less than convincing in their last game against Fremantle. Also, the last three times these teams have met, it’s been all North Melbourne.

Bet on The Footy at IASBet.com

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After the Big V took on the Dream Team in last week’s exhibition match, and missing out on a round of regular footy, I’m keen as mustard to get back in to punting on the remainder of the season. The ladder is starting to take shape, with Geelong and Hawthorn having won every match this year, while the Bulldogs are sitting just behind them also unbeaten, but with a draw against Richmond.

My first value pick this week is the Western Bulldogs. The Bullies are playing Freo, who were beaten by Melbourne (in Melbourne) in round 7. The dogs have won their past two encounters by less than 30 points against the Dockers, and I expect that to continue this week. $1.78 to win is very good odds for 3rd against 3rd last on the ladder, or you could take an educated guess that this won’t be a huge scoring affair and get on the margin bet, Western Bulldogs by 1-39 which is paying $2.30.

St Kilda are without star forward Nick Riewoldt, but all hope is not lost. The Saints have beaten the Pies in 4 of their last 5 outings and it looks like Frasier is going to be out, which is a huge loss for Collingwood. $2.38 to win is good odds for what should be a close home game for St. Kilda and I’m tipping them to win.

And finally for the long shot of the week. While I think Hawthorn will win their home game down at Aurora Stadium in Tassie this week, the Power have beaten the Hawks 7 times out of their last 8 matches, the most recent of which (round 20, 2007) was played at the very same stadium and Port won 87 - 82. It’s a well known fact that Alistair Clarkson and Co. began their coaching careers with Port, and both coaches know each others’ game plan. I think this will be a much closer game than the odds suggest and it might be worth a punt with odds over $3.

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We’re a third way through the 2008 season, and there’s still some great odds to be had if you want to get in early on the Brownlow betting market. Last years winner, Jimmy “Total Footballer” Bartel and gun teammate Gary Ablett Jnr. both have a very good chance of polling the top 3 votes this year with Geelong continuing their dominant form this year, and I’d say they’re worth the punt with odds over $3 for the place.

Here’s the top picks for both Win & Place betting (where available) from my 3 favourite Aussie online betting sites, with the best odds for that player indicated in bold.

It looks like Sporting Bet currently has the best odds for the outright win, but unfortunately they don’t offer Place or Each Way odds. IAS Bet is leading the race for place betting, offering some very nice odds early in the season, and some extremely juicy odds for Chris Judd to poll the most votes this year. If he can get over his groin injury in the latter half of the season, odds of $17 is very, very good for someone who can dominate games from an umpires perspective.

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