Oze Punting Blog

We enter the split round of the 2008 season, and once again there’s not a great deal of value for the outright win bets this week. I don’t think there’s much between Carlton and Richmond, and $2.22 is good value for the win, but I can’t see this one being a blowout, so I’ll take a punt on the Blues by less than 40, which is paying $2.75.

The Roos should account for the Saints, however recent form suggests there won’t be a huge margin, especially with Dal Santo coming back into the side.

And my long-shot for the week is the Dockers by a good margin. Freo play their best at home and should be too strong for Essendon. Pavlich is finding some form lately, if he and Tarrant can kick straight, there’s no reason this game couldn’t be a repeat of round 12, where the Dockers beat the Kangaroos by over 50 points. I’ll take a small bet on Freo over 40 points paying $4.10.

• Blues by 1-39 points paying $2.75
• Roos by 1-39 points paying $2.30
• Freo by 40+ points paying $4.10

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St. Kilda have dropped small forward Steven Milne and silky midfielder Nick Dal Santo for their Friday night home match with the Dockers, bringing in three young players and causing a huge swing in the betting odds. This is a real test for both the St. Kilda football club, and for Ross Lyon as a coach. I think they’re up to the task, and will beat the Dockers in a close finish.

The Cats are finding some form again and should get up by over 5 goals against a midfield depleted West Coast side.

For the long-shot this week, Adelaide have had the better of the Lions in recent years, and the Bird man will be a huge plus for the Crows.

Good luck and happy punting!

• Saints to win by less than 25 points paying $3.85
• Line bet on the Cats -28.5 paying $1.91
• Adelaide to win paying $2.60

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After last week, where all of the favourites came up and won except for Carlton, this week appears to have a lot more options if you’re looking for a bit of value. I’ll get straight into it as I’m running short of time today.

My value tips are for the first three games of the round. I’ve found the best odds can be had on CentreBet this week, I especially like this site as they’re very quick to deposit winnings straight into your bank account. I’ve had a $100 AFL multi-bet pay out over $10k with them, which they were happy to deposit only days after the win. Without further ado, here’s my value tips for round 12.

• West Coast to beat Essendon by 1-39 Paying $2.60
• Brisbane to beat the Bullies by 1-24 Paying $4.25
• Kangaroos to beat Freo by 1-39 Paying $2.65

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I usually put in three recommended bets for value, but this week it’s proving rather difficult to find them. The stand out value punt for me in round 11 is Richmond taking on a birdman-less Adelaide outfit. Richo is in brownlow medal form and Adelaide have been very inaccurate in front of goal lately. At $2.40, the tigers are a a great chance at good odds.

St. Kilda found some form last week, but against Melbourne this year that’s not saying a great deal. They’re paying $2.58 against the Bulldogs who are in good form at the moment, comfortably defeating the previously unbeaten Hawthorn last week, and they beat the Saints by 38 points earlier in the year. Without Murphy, the dogs have lost one very good avenue to goal, but I still think they’ll be too strong.

Finally the long-shot of the week. Carlton have a chance to upset a struggling Port Adelaide side, and with odds of over $6 for the win, there is a bit of value in them. For a safer option, Port by less than 40 points is still good value.

Suggested value bets

1. Richmond to beat Adelaide paying $2.40.
2. St Kilda to beat Bulldogs paying $2.58
3. Carlton to win paying $6.10 and/or Port Adelaide by 1-39 paying $2.30

Good luck and happy punting!

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