May 20th 2009
Round 9 AFL Betting Odds for the ‘09 Season
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There were no real upsets last week, although some very close games that could have quite easily been. Collingwood didn’t bounce back, in fact they did quite the opposite. Their young players simply couldn’t step up, and even without Fevola having much of an impact, the Blues thumped them. Fremantle showed a little, but not enough to topple the Hawks. They didn’t win convincingly, and if Freo had kicked a little straighter the result could have been very different. Melbourne gave the Bullies a fright, and the young Demons are not too far off stringing a few games together. West Coast gave their all against Sydney, but couldn’t get over the line, and the Tigers recorded their seventh loss for the year after Warren Tredrea stole the game in the last few minutes.
On to this week, and Adelaide are the stand-out value bet. Playing at home, I don’t see how Carlton deserve to be big favourites. The Crows have comfortably beaten the Blues the last 5 times they’ve met, no matter where the game has been played, and Adelaide have had a pretty rough draw so far. Carlton, on the other hand have yet to impress me this year. I expect at the very least this game to be close, and the odds look like big overs to me.
Richmond are also a good chance, having dominated Essendon in recent years and surely they’ve got to win one soon, don’t they?
The last games I see value in, but just can’t bring myself to bet on them, are Fremantle to beat the Roos and Melbourne to beat the Hawks. It might pay to put them in a few multi-bets.
I don’t see too much value in the other games this week, they look pretty black and white to me. My betting tip for this week is a head-to-head multi with Geelong, West Coast, Sydney, St. Kilda and Adelaide paying $7.22 from SportingBet. Good luck, and happy punting!
| Teams | SB | IAS |
|---|---|---|
| Geelong Bulldogs |
1.14 5.75 |
1.14 5.75 |
| Kangaroos Freo |
1.73 2.10 |
1.74 2.10 |
| Adelaide Carlton |
2.30 1.62 |
2.25 1.65 |
|
Eagles |
1.50 2.60 |
1.53 2.50 |
| Tigers Bombers |
2.35 1.60 |
2.35 1.60 |
| Sydney Port Power |
1.57 2.40 |
1.57 2.40 |
| Saints Lions |
1.17 5.00 |
1.16 5.30 |
| Hawks Dees |
1.18 5.00 |
1.17 5.10 |
Tags: 209, adelaide, AFL, australia, betting, geelong, odds, online, sportingbet, st kilda, sydney, value, West Coast
3 Comments »
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Mango on 21 May 2009 at 9:57 am #
Tough round this week. i feel that all the games bar Saints, Hawks and cats could go either way.
I support the Blues and dont bet on their gams so will be skipping your selection of Adelaide for value
Australian Punter on 21 May 2009 at 10:55 am #
I think the Hawks are massive unders Mango, Melbourne have been playing well without getting the points, and the Hawks are really struggling in their back half. That said, Hawthorn should win, I just don’t think it will be anywhere near a walk in the park like the odds suggest.
I understand not betting on your own team, especially to lose
Glen on 22 May 2009 at 10:10 am #
hey – great stuff this week. like the format – i beg to differ about the blues! i think they’re a big show to knock off adelaide. if fev can kick four, and he’s due, they’ll power home.
just have a look at their team on paper again – it reminded me how good they ’should’ be.
http://www.sporttalk.com.au/afl-round-7-tips-odds-best-bets/ – my best bet is the bombers. i’m considering having my biggest AFL bet ever on the dons to beat the tigers – you can read why!