Oze Punting Blog

There’s some good looking value in most games this week and I’m going to take a chance at a Multi-Bet with CentreBet who are offering a $50 Free Bet for new clients. That’s a good deal no matter how you look at it!

I think there’s great value for both the Bombers, who are in great form at the moment, and the cellar dweller Demons who’re playing a not-very-impressive Freo. With Palmer and Bell out for Fremantle, they simply don’t have any good midfielders. Pavlich will get them close, but I think Melbourne have shown that they can play some decent football this year and I think they’ll be too good. The tanking subject makes games like this tough to pick, I think it would be silly to bet big on either team, especially the Dockers, whereas there’s definitely value in betting on the Demons. Richmond showed how easy it is to beat a team that’s not trying, but this week they’re playing a team of Bombers who look in great form and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Tigers finished the season in 9th position again this year. The bombers on the other hand, I believe are a real chance to make the 8.

• Multi Bet with Collingwood, Geelong, Hawthorn, Sydney and Adelaide with odds of nearly $8.80
• Essendon to beat Richmond at $2.20
• Melbourne to beat Fremantle at $2.85

Here are the rest of the odds with my tips for this weeks winners in bold.

Teams (Home Team First)	Home Win Odds	Away Win Odds
Roos v Pies	2.30	1.65
Cats v Dogs	1.52	2.55
Tigers v Bombers	1.68	2.20
Lions v Eagles	1.09	7.50
Saints v Hawks	2.70	1.47
Blues v Swans	2.45	1.56
Power v Crows	2.10	1.74
Dockers v Demons	1.43	2.85

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I’m sure you’re just as keen as I am to have a proper weekend of footy after last week’s split round, so I’ll get straight back into the betting tips for round 15 2008. I do see quite a fair bit of value this week, so I’ve put in one more bet than usual.

The Saints really should be too good for Carlton. The closest the Blues have come to beating St. Kilda in recent years is 10 points in 2007. Earlier this year, the Saints bet them by more than 6 goals, but with Judd coming back in to the side and Carlton playing much better defensively, I think it will be much closer than last time.

The Kangaroos have much more to play for than Port. With Chad Cornes on one leg, one hand, one arm and who knows what else, the Power will struggle to match it with a fiery North Melbourne side, I think the odds should favour the Roos here.

Sydney have had Hawthorn’s measure the last 6 times they’ve met, and with those odds you can’t go past them.

The Tigers odds have blown out thanks to Richo’s hamstring. One (albeit great) man does not make a football team, and the black and yellow should prevail against the “rabble” that West Coast appears to be this year.

Australia’s own Sporting Bet looks to have some very healthy odds this week, and I’ll outline my recommended bets for each game this week.

• St. Kilda by 1 - 39 - $2.40
• Kangaroos by 1 - 39 - $2.45
• Sydney to win - $3.00
• Richmond by 1 - 39 - $2.60

With whatever you choose to have a punt on this week, good luck!

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We enter the split round of the 2008 season, and once again there’s not a great deal of value for the outright win bets this week. I don’t think there’s much between Carlton and Richmond, and $2.22 is good value for the win, but I can’t see this one being a blowout, so I’ll take a punt on the Blues by less than 40, which is paying $2.75.

The Roos should account for the Saints, however recent form suggests there won’t be a huge margin, especially with Dal Santo coming back into the side.

And my long-shot for the week is the Dockers by a good margin. Freo play their best at home and should be too strong for Essendon. Pavlich is finding some form lately, if he and Tarrant can kick straight, there’s no reason this game couldn’t be a repeat of round 12, where the Dockers beat the Kangaroos by over 50 points. I’ll take a small bet on Freo over 40 points paying $4.10.

• Blues by 1-39 points paying $2.75
• Roos by 1-39 points paying $2.30
• Freo by 40+ points paying $4.10

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St. Kilda have dropped small forward Steven Milne and silky midfielder Nick Dal Santo for their Friday night home match with the Dockers, bringing in three young players and causing a huge swing in the betting odds. This is a real test for both the St. Kilda football club, and for Ross Lyon as a coach. I think they’re up to the task, and will beat the Dockers in a close finish.

The Cats are finding some form again and should get up by over 5 goals against a midfield depleted West Coast side.

For the long-shot this week, Adelaide have had the better of the Lions in recent years, and the Bird man will be a huge plus for the Crows.

Good luck and happy punting!

• Saints to win by less than 25 points paying $3.85
• Line bet on the Cats -28.5 paying $1.91
• Adelaide to win paying $2.60

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After last week, where all of the favourites came up and won except for Carlton, this week appears to have a lot more options if you’re looking for a bit of value. I’ll get straight into it as I’m running short of time today.

My value tips are for the first three games of the round. I’ve found the best odds can be had on CentreBet this week, I especially like this site as they’re very quick to deposit winnings straight into your bank account. I’ve had a $100 AFL multi-bet pay out over $10k with them, which they were happy to deposit only days after the win. Without further ado, here’s my value tips for round 12.

• West Coast to beat Essendon by 1-39 Paying $2.60
• Brisbane to beat the Bullies by 1-24 Paying $4.25
• Kangaroos to beat Freo by 1-39 Paying $2.65

Get Great Odds at CentreBet

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I usually put in three recommended bets for value, but this week it’s proving rather difficult to find them. The stand out value punt for me in round 11 is Richmond taking on a birdman-less Adelaide outfit. Richo is in brownlow medal form and Adelaide have been very inaccurate in front of goal lately. At $2.40, the tigers are a a great chance at good odds.

St. Kilda found some form last week, but against Melbourne this year that’s not saying a great deal. They’re paying $2.58 against the Bulldogs who are in good form at the moment, comfortably defeating the previously unbeaten Hawthorn last week, and they beat the Saints by 38 points earlier in the year. Without Murphy, the dogs have lost one very good avenue to goal, but I still think they’ll be too strong.

Finally the long-shot of the week. Carlton have a chance to upset a struggling Port Adelaide side, and with odds of over $6 for the win, there is a bit of value in them. For a safer option, Port by less than 40 points is still good value.

Suggested value bets

1. Richmond to beat Adelaide paying $2.40.
2. St Kilda to beat Bulldogs paying $2.58
3. Carlton to win paying $6.10 and/or Port Adelaide by 1-39 paying $2.30

Good luck and happy punting!

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The odds suggest this week will be pretty easy for those involved in footy tipping comps around Australia, there’s not a lot of value to be had on straight out win bets. All the home teams, bar Port Adelaide playing Fremantle are rightful short favourites. I do, however, think there is value to be had for Port Adelaide, the Bulldogs and Melbourne.

My first bet would be for the Power to beat the Dockers. Port have a lot more to lose than Freo, and I think they’ll get up in a reasonably close game.

Second bet this week will be the two top-scoring sides in the competition. Hawthorn are still without a lot of run from the half back line, missing Guerra with a hamstring injury, not to mention the lack of Hodge and Crawford in the middle. The Western Bulldogs have so many avenues to goal and down at the larger than average Aurora Stadium, should find their way to the big sticks plenty of times. If they can hold Buddy and Roughead to only a few goals each, the Doggies can win this one.

And the long-shot for the week. The Dees - IF they can repeat the form they showed last week for David Neitz’ retirement are a chance to upset the Saints.

Here are the current best odds for betting on the footy.

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There’s a couple of stand out bets for me this week. Sydney are a hard team to beat no matter where they’re playing, and have had it over the Power in recent times beating them in their last three encounters. I think these odds are very good for a game that I believe will be very close.

Carlton should beat Freo at home at the Dome, and the odds look decent enough to have a bet. My tip is for Fevola to kick a bag of goals while Pavlich spends too much time in the midfield.

If you’re looking for a long shot, the Kangaroos are never an easy side to beat, and the Bulldogs were less than convincing in their last game against Fremantle. Also, the last three times these teams have met, it’s been all North Melbourne.

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After the Big V took on the Dream Team in last week’s exhibition match, and missing out on a round of regular footy, I’m keen as mustard to get back in to punting on the remainder of the season. The ladder is starting to take shape, with Geelong and Hawthorn having won every match this year, while the Bulldogs are sitting just behind them also unbeaten, but with a draw against Richmond.

My first value pick this week is the Western Bulldogs. The Bullies are playing Freo, who were beaten by Melbourne (in Melbourne) in round 7. The dogs have won their past two encounters by less than 30 points against the Dockers, and I expect that to continue this week. $1.78 to win is very good odds for 3rd against 3rd last on the ladder, or you could take an educated guess that this won’t be a huge scoring affair and get on the margin bet, Western Bulldogs by 1-39 which is paying $2.30.

St Kilda are without star forward Nick Riewoldt, but all hope is not lost. The Saints have beaten the Pies in 4 of their last 5 outings and it looks like Frasier is going to be out, which is a huge loss for Collingwood. $2.38 to win is good odds for what should be a close home game for St. Kilda and I’m tipping them to win.

And finally for the long shot of the week. While I think Hawthorn will win their home game down at Aurora Stadium in Tassie this week, the Power have beaten the Hawks 7 times out of their last 8 matches, the most recent of which (round 20, 2007) was played at the very same stadium and Port won 87 - 82. It’s a well known fact that Alistair Clarkson and Co. began their coaching careers with Port, and both coaches know each others’ game plan. I think this will be a much closer game than the odds suggest and it might be worth a punt with odds over $3.

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1 out of 3 last week, not my greatest this year. The Kangaroos prevailed against Essendon, but West Coast without Cox were absolutely smashed in the ruck, and subsequently, the scores aswell. Hawthorn took a handy lead early in the match, and appeared to be in control of the game, but their inexperience saw that lead dwindle away to nothing in less than 15 minutes. To their credit, they did fight back to keep the scores close, but lost it in the final term.

There’s some close matches being played this week, but I like the look of the home games for the Kangaroos and Sydney, who should bounce back after being beaten by the Saints.

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