Oze Punting Blog

We enter the split round of the 2008 season, and once again there’s not a great deal of value for the outright win bets this week. I don’t think there’s much between Carlton and Richmond, and $2.22 is good value for the win, but I can’t see this one being a blowout, so I’ll take a punt on the Blues by less than 40, which is paying $2.75.

The Roos should account for the Saints, however recent form suggests there won’t be a huge margin, especially with Dal Santo coming back into the side.

And my long-shot for the week is the Dockers by a good margin. Freo play their best at home and should be too strong for Essendon. Pavlich is finding some form lately, if he and Tarrant can kick straight, there’s no reason this game couldn’t be a repeat of round 12, where the Dockers beat the Kangaroos by over 50 points. I’ll take a small bet on Freo over 40 points paying $4.10.

• Blues by 1-39 points paying $2.75
• Roos by 1-39 points paying $2.30
• Freo by 40+ points paying $4.10

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The odds suggest this week will be pretty easy for those involved in footy tipping comps around Australia, there’s not a lot of value to be had on straight out win bets. All the home teams, bar Port Adelaide playing Fremantle are rightful short favourites. I do, however, think there is value to be had for Port Adelaide, the Bulldogs and Melbourne.

My first bet would be for the Power to beat the Dockers. Port have a lot more to lose than Freo, and I think they’ll get up in a reasonably close game.

Second bet this week will be the two top-scoring sides in the competition. Hawthorn are still without a lot of run from the half back line, missing Guerra with a hamstring injury, not to mention the lack of Hodge and Crawford in the middle. The Western Bulldogs have so many avenues to goal and down at the larger than average Aurora Stadium, should find their way to the big sticks plenty of times. If they can hold Buddy and Roughead to only a few goals each, the Doggies can win this one.

And the long-shot for the week. The Dees - IF they can repeat the form they showed last week for David Neitz’ retirement are a chance to upset the Saints.

Here are the current best odds for betting on the footy.

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