Oze Punting Blog

We enter the split round of the 2008 season, and once again there’s not a great deal of value for the outright win bets this week. I don’t think there’s much between Carlton and Richmond, and $2.22 is good value for the win, but I can’t see this one being a blowout, so I’ll take a punt on the Blues by less than 40, which is paying $2.75.

The Roos should account for the Saints, however recent form suggests there won’t be a huge margin, especially with Dal Santo coming back into the side.

And my long-shot for the week is the Dockers by a good margin. Freo play their best at home and should be too strong for Essendon. Pavlich is finding some form lately, if he and Tarrant can kick straight, there’s no reason this game couldn’t be a repeat of round 12, where the Dockers beat the Kangaroos by over 50 points. I’ll take a small bet on Freo over 40 points paying $4.10.

• Blues by 1-39 points paying $2.75
• Roos by 1-39 points paying $2.30
• Freo by 40+ points paying $4.10

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After last week, where all of the favourites came up and won except for Carlton, this week appears to have a lot more options if you’re looking for a bit of value. I’ll get straight into it as I’m running short of time today.

My value tips are for the first three games of the round. I’ve found the best odds can be had on CentreBet this week, I especially like this site as they’re very quick to deposit winnings straight into your bank account. I’ve had a $100 AFL multi-bet pay out over $10k with them, which they were happy to deposit only days after the win. Without further ado, here’s my value tips for round 12.

• West Coast to beat Essendon by 1-39 Paying $2.60
• Brisbane to beat the Bullies by 1-24 Paying $4.25
• Kangaroos to beat Freo by 1-39 Paying $2.65

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After the Big V took on the Dream Team in last week’s exhibition match, and missing out on a round of regular footy, I’m keen as mustard to get back in to punting on the remainder of the season. The ladder is starting to take shape, with Geelong and Hawthorn having won every match this year, while the Bulldogs are sitting just behind them also unbeaten, but with a draw against Richmond.

My first value pick this week is the Western Bulldogs. The Bullies are playing Freo, who were beaten by Melbourne (in Melbourne) in round 7. The dogs have won their past two encounters by less than 30 points against the Dockers, and I expect that to continue this week. $1.78 to win is very good odds for 3rd against 3rd last on the ladder, or you could take an educated guess that this won’t be a huge scoring affair and get on the margin bet, Western Bulldogs by 1-39 which is paying $2.30.

St Kilda are without star forward Nick Riewoldt, but all hope is not lost. The Saints have beaten the Pies in 4 of their last 5 outings and it looks like Frasier is going to be out, which is a huge loss for Collingwood. $2.38 to win is good odds for what should be a close home game for St. Kilda and I’m tipping them to win.

And finally for the long shot of the week. While I think Hawthorn will win their home game down at Aurora Stadium in Tassie this week, the Power have beaten the Hawks 7 times out of their last 8 matches, the most recent of which (round 20, 2007) was played at the very same stadium and Port won 87 - 82. It’s a well known fact that Alistair Clarkson and Co. began their coaching careers with Port, and both coaches know each others’ game plan. I think this will be a much closer game than the odds suggest and it might be worth a punt with odds over $3.

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