Oze Punting Blog

I’m sure you’re just as keen as I am to have a proper weekend of footy after last week’s split round, so I’ll get straight back into the betting tips for round 15 2008. I do see quite a fair bit of value this week, so I’ve put in one more bet than usual.

The Saints really should be too good for Carlton. The closest the Blues have come to beating St. Kilda in recent years is 10 points in 2007. Earlier this year, the Saints bet them by more than 6 goals, but with Judd coming back in to the side and Carlton playing much better defensively, I think it will be much closer than last time.

The Kangaroos have much more to play for than Port. With Chad Cornes on one leg, one hand, one arm and who knows what else, the Power will struggle to match it with a fiery North Melbourne side, I think the odds should favour the Roos here.

Sydney have had Hawthorn’s measure the last 6 times they’ve met, and with those odds you can’t go past them.

The Tigers odds have blown out thanks to Richo’s hamstring. One (albeit great) man does not make a football team, and the black and yellow should prevail against the “rabble” that West Coast appears to be this year.

Australia’s own Sporting Bet looks to have some very healthy odds this week, and I’ll outline my recommended bets for each game this week.

• St. Kilda by 1 - 39 - $2.40
• Kangaroos by 1 - 39 - $2.45
• Sydney to win - $3.00
• Richmond by 1 - 39 - $2.60

With whatever you choose to have a punt on this week, good luck!

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I usually put in three recommended bets for value, but this week it’s proving rather difficult to find them. The stand out value punt for me in round 11 is Richmond taking on a birdman-less Adelaide outfit. Richo is in brownlow medal form and Adelaide have been very inaccurate in front of goal lately. At $2.40, the tigers are a a great chance at good odds.

St. Kilda found some form last week, but against Melbourne this year that’s not saying a great deal. They’re paying $2.58 against the Bulldogs who are in good form at the moment, comfortably defeating the previously unbeaten Hawthorn last week, and they beat the Saints by 38 points earlier in the year. Without Murphy, the dogs have lost one very good avenue to goal, but I still think they’ll be too strong.

Finally the long-shot of the week. Carlton have a chance to upset a struggling Port Adelaide side, and with odds of over $6 for the win, there is a bit of value in them. For a safer option, Port by less than 40 points is still good value.

Suggested value bets

1. Richmond to beat Adelaide paying $2.40.
2. St Kilda to beat Bulldogs paying $2.58
3. Carlton to win paying $6.10 and/or Port Adelaide by 1-39 paying $2.30

Good luck and happy punting!

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After the Big V took on the Dream Team in last week’s exhibition match, and missing out on a round of regular footy, I’m keen as mustard to get back in to punting on the remainder of the season. The ladder is starting to take shape, with Geelong and Hawthorn having won every match this year, while the Bulldogs are sitting just behind them also unbeaten, but with a draw against Richmond.

My first value pick this week is the Western Bulldogs. The Bullies are playing Freo, who were beaten by Melbourne (in Melbourne) in round 7. The dogs have won their past two encounters by less than 30 points against the Dockers, and I expect that to continue this week. $1.78 to win is very good odds for 3rd against 3rd last on the ladder, or you could take an educated guess that this won’t be a huge scoring affair and get on the margin bet, Western Bulldogs by 1-39 which is paying $2.30.

St Kilda are without star forward Nick Riewoldt, but all hope is not lost. The Saints have beaten the Pies in 4 of their last 5 outings and it looks like Frasier is going to be out, which is a huge loss for Collingwood. $2.38 to win is good odds for what should be a close home game for St. Kilda and I’m tipping them to win.

And finally for the long shot of the week. While I think Hawthorn will win their home game down at Aurora Stadium in Tassie this week, the Power have beaten the Hawks 7 times out of their last 8 matches, the most recent of which (round 20, 2007) was played at the very same stadium and Port won 87 - 82. It’s a well known fact that Alistair Clarkson and Co. began their coaching careers with Port, and both coaches know each others’ game plan. I think this will be a much closer game than the odds suggest and it might be worth a punt with odds over $3.

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