Oze Punting Blog

I usually put in three recommended bets for value, but this week it’s proving rather difficult to find them. The stand out value punt for me in round 11 is Richmond taking on a birdman-less Adelaide outfit. Richo is in brownlow medal form and Adelaide have been very inaccurate in front of goal lately. At $2.40, the tigers are a a great chance at good odds.

St. Kilda found some form last week, but against Melbourne this year that’s not saying a great deal. They’re paying $2.58 against the Bulldogs who are in good form at the moment, comfortably defeating the previously unbeaten Hawthorn last week, and they beat the Saints by 38 points earlier in the year. Without Murphy, the dogs have lost one very good avenue to goal, but I still think they’ll be too strong.

Finally the long-shot of the week. Carlton have a chance to upset a struggling Port Adelaide side, and with odds of over $6 for the win, there is a bit of value in them. For a safer option, Port by less than 40 points is still good value.

Suggested value bets

1. Richmond to beat Adelaide paying $2.40.
2. St Kilda to beat Bulldogs paying $2.58
3. Carlton to win paying $6.10 and/or Port Adelaide by 1-39 paying $2.30

Good luck and happy punting!

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After the Big V took on the Dream Team in last week’s exhibition match, and missing out on a round of regular footy, I’m keen as mustard to get back in to punting on the remainder of the season. The ladder is starting to take shape, with Geelong and Hawthorn having won every match this year, while the Bulldogs are sitting just behind them also unbeaten, but with a draw against Richmond.

My first value pick this week is the Western Bulldogs. The Bullies are playing Freo, who were beaten by Melbourne (in Melbourne) in round 7. The dogs have won their past two encounters by less than 30 points against the Dockers, and I expect that to continue this week. $1.78 to win is very good odds for 3rd against 3rd last on the ladder, or you could take an educated guess that this won’t be a huge scoring affair and get on the margin bet, Western Bulldogs by 1-39 which is paying $2.30.

St Kilda are without star forward Nick Riewoldt, but all hope is not lost. The Saints have beaten the Pies in 4 of their last 5 outings and it looks like Frasier is going to be out, which is a huge loss for Collingwood. $2.38 to win is good odds for what should be a close home game for St. Kilda and I’m tipping them to win.

And finally for the long shot of the week. While I think Hawthorn will win their home game down at Aurora Stadium in Tassie this week, the Power have beaten the Hawks 7 times out of their last 8 matches, the most recent of which (round 20, 2007) was played at the very same stadium and Port won 87 - 82. It’s a well known fact that Alistair Clarkson and Co. began their coaching careers with Port, and both coaches know each others’ game plan. I think this will be a much closer game than the odds suggest and it might be worth a punt with odds over $3.

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Early Oaks Day Fixed Price Betting Odds

Punters think this years Crown Oaks will be taken out by Serious Speed, Zarita, El Daana, Riva San, Arapaho Miss or Royale Harmony.

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Update: - This post was written in 2007, here is the 2008 Melbourne Cup Field and Fixed Price Odds

Here they are. The full and final list of 24 starters in for the 2007 Cup. The race that stops the nation, and many parts of the world!

There’s some good odds to be had at the moment if you get in early and obtain a high fixed price. As always there is an element of risk involved - but it certainly can pay big dividends.

Here’s the final field for this year’s big race, with the current fixed price betting odds displayed on the far right-hand side column. There’s a few horses here that have a great chance and are listed with some very healthy odds.

*Fixed Price Win Only Odds from IASBet.com as at Sunday 4th of November, subject to fluctutations.

Get the Latest Odds and Bet on the Melbourne Cup

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Looking at the odds this week, there’s not alot of value going around. Collingwood V Port should be a close game, I expect the Pies to come home so I may put a small punt on them.

The slow starting Sydney don’t have a good record in Adelaide, but I can’t discount them just yet. It should be a tight game, but I think the Crows will be too strong in the end, small bet at $1.80. Fremantle really should have no trouble beating a depleted Melbourne side, but I would want a bit more than $1.48.

Finally, the Hawks have a chance to win on Sunday. They beat the Cats by large margins both times the teams met last year, and they’re playing at Tassie which is a very large ground that Geelong have never played on. That being said, Geelong have a much stronger looking forward line this year, and arguably Hawthorn’s best defender Trent Croad is out. If the odds were better I would get on the Hawks.

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The odds are reflecting pretty much what one would expect this week, but the first match Collingwood (coming back from Perth) Vs. Richmond (Troy Simmonds back) could be a good one to get on. Richmond at $2.10 for the win is certainly not guaranteed, but I think there’s some value to be had.

West Coast should be able to defeat Freo in the Western Derby, at odds of $1.78 it looks like a decent punt. The rest of the games don’t offer much value that I can see, meaning the underpriced favourites should come home, and be a pretty easy week of Footy Tipping. We all know that’s never a certainty, but to me this week looks much better than the first two.

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After an interrupted season last year, we’re back for the 2007 AFL Home and Away season.

In the season opener, St. Kilda defeated Melbourne last night which would have been great value for money, Melbourne were the favourite’s but played a very average game, the Saints were much too strong for the Dees and ended up in front by more than 5 goals at full time. There’s one other match this week that I think offers some value, Sydney Swans vs. West Coast Eagles. These two sides have a history of very close games, and I don’t think this one will be much different. Can the Eagles get over all of the off ground pressure and upset the Swans? I think they’re a chance, and with odds of $2.53 to win, it might be worth a punt.

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West Coast were lucky to win last week, but they did get the points in the end. Melbourne were too good for the Saints, and Collingwood, as predicted, were too good for Brisbane.

There’s not much on offer this week, The Demons against the Pies and Richmond V Kangaroos should both be close games, and the other games this week are probably going the way of the fav’s.

Fremantle has a decent chance against a heavily injured Bulldogs side, apart from that, I don’t see much value here.

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Looking at the odds this week there’s not many value bets, most punters seem to think this round will be an easy one. Just like the previous two rounds I suppose Who would have backed the Tigers to beat Adelaide?

There are a few games here which I think could be tough, and I’ll put in my two value bets for the week. They’re not specials, as I agree with most of the punters and I rarely bet on an under priced favourite.
Port Adelaide without Cornes will be a lesser side, but they are due for a win. I think the prices should be much closer than what they are now against a struggling Essendon, who did put up an excellent fight last week. I still don’t think they’re back to their best and Port can improve a lot from where they are now.
The other value bet would be Fremantle to beat Brisbane @ $2.30. Not much else would return any value this week, unless you’re feeling game and want to back Carlton in at $8. Can they pull off the same upset as Richmond last week? I highly doubt it. Unless Fevola kicks 15-20 goals, that is
Here are the current head to head odds.

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Australia takes on New Zealand in the traditional Anzac Test match Suncorp Stadium. Australia will be fired up for revenge in this one after the Kiwis rewrote the record books with a 24-0 win the last time the sides met in the Tri Nations Series. Needless to say, the Kangaroos are a bit short for a straight out bet so the Margin Betting option is the way to go here.

The Aussies are easy favourites to take the win, paying 1.22. There’s a lot of value in NZ, paying over $4.

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