Brownlow Medal Betting Tips
Formally called the Chas Brownlow Trophy but commonly known as the Brownlow Medal (and informally as “Charlie”) is awarded to the best and fairest player during the regular AFL football season. For those who don’t know how the Brownlow medalist is chosen, after each match the officiating umpires of every game convene and decide who the three most influential players of the game were. The umpires give 3 votes to the most influential player of the match, 2 votes to the second and a single vote for the third best player on ground.
The Brownlow is arguably the most prestigious award for an individual player in the AFL. It is widely acknowledged in the media as the highest individual honour in the sport of Australian Rules Football, however many Aussie rules football supporters consider the Leigh Matthews Trophy, more commonly known as the AFLPA‘s MVP Award is a more accurate reflection of the best player of the year as it is voted on by current players instead of umpires.
Brownlow Medal night is held on the Monday night before the Grand Final. Check your local TV guide for the exact date and time of the Red Carpet and the Live Brownlow Medal Count which is usually performed by the CEO of the AFL.
Who won the 2014 Brownlow Medal?
Matthew Priddis, West Coast midfielder. Priddis polled 26 votes to beat the ineligible Nat Fyfe by 1 vote and Gary Ablett Jr. and Lance “Buddy” Franklin were equal second officially, each finishing the year with 22 votes. Ablett sustained a season ending injury during Round 16, at which point he was 5 votes clear in the lead.
My Tips for Betting on the Brownlow
At the beginning of each year, there are always some players at great odds to take home the Brownlow Medal. Here are some things to take into account when trying to find a roughie for the Charlie.
- Bet on players in teams that will feature in the top 8.
Generally speaking, the winner of the Charlie will be from a team in the top 8.
- Pick players that don’t have too much team competition.
Being able to identify stand-out players in average to good teams can be an absolute gold-mine in tipping both the Brownlow medalist winner, and the more exotic betting options such as win/place, top 5 and most votes from each team type betting.
- Select players who will play in the midfield.
Many people call the Brownlow a “midfielders medal”, as those who play in the forward line, ruck or in defense rarely get noticed as much as the major ball-winners. Historically, midfielders poll a large percentage more votes than players in any other position. As the adage goes, the game is won and lost in the midfield.
- Find midfielders that are likely to avoid a hard tag.
Some outstanding players can handle a hard tag, while others will benefit in Brownlow votes from having a team-mate who’s considered more damaging by the opposition coach, therefore avoiding the first tag and having more room to gather the pill and catch the eyes of the umpires.
- Take a punt on breakout contenders.
In order to get the very best odds possible on the Brownlow medal, you need to place your bets before the season starts, or at the very latest, during the first several weeks of the fixture. Watching the pre-season games can give you a rough idea about a player entering their 5th or 6th year of regular footy who has had a role change, or is about to step up into the true ‘elite’ players of the game.
- Look at durability over past seasons.
Some players are a lot more durable than others, and one missed game through injury may very well cost your player an addition to the trophy cabinet. Obviously, you don’t want players that have a history of reports and suspensions as the medal is awarded to the best and fairest player of the year. If a player is suspended, they are disqualified from winning the award, even if they are voted the best player of the year.
- Look at recent polling history.
This is especially true if the votes and/or team are on the rise. Some players just don’t attract the attention of umpires, or may be fairly or unfairly treated differently due to the umpires’ perception or public image of a player. Others seem to nearly get a vote for simply stepping onto the field. Research how many votes a player has won in past years and see if there is a trend upwards. If there is also a probability of getting more votes due to retirements, role changes, more experience and so on, you may have found yourself a good candidate.
- Look closely at the exotic betting markets.
I made a killing a few years ago with multis. If you can find a bookmaker that will accept multi-bets on the most votes per team, do your research and you can almost guarantee that there will be a standout player in each team that is highly likely to finish with the most votes for their club. I would leave out some clubs with several star players who all attract a lot of votes such as Collingwood, Hawthorn, Geelong and Sydney, but the teams on the lower end of the ladder are usually very easy to predict who will poll the most votes for their club.
- Don’t discount Brownlow place betting.
If you’ve ever had a bet on a player who’s finished 2nd or 3rd then you will feel my pain. The good thing is, however, all online bookmakers allow you to bet on a player to come in a place. Depending on the bookmaker, this could be the Top 3 or the Top 5 place-getters. The odds are 1/4 of the win odds, which if you get your bets on early in the season, can still give you a good return on investment. I highly recommend place bets after several successive years of winning a lot more than my initial Brownlow fund outlay, thanks in part to only losing a single place bet.
2014 Brownlow Medal Results – Top 10
|Matthew Priddis||West Coast||26|
|Gary Ablett||Gold Coast||22|
|Travis Boak||Port Adelaide||21|
Matt Priddis was a surprise winner of the Brownlow Medal this year, but I wouldn’t say that he was unworthy as he has had a fantastic year. In a poor polling year, he managed to win when his team finished just outside the top 8, they were 9th with 11 wins for the year. One of the things I always look for when selecting a roughie for the Charlie is the competition for votes in the team. Priddis was the dominant inside midfielder in many of West Coast’s wins in 2014, Andrew Gaff was the closest eligible Brownlow Medal contender with just 6 votes. There is no other team in the competition with such a large margin between the first and second brownlow medal votes received. Even Josh J Kennedy, who was ineligible only finished with 11 votes, 15 behind Priddis. If you bet on Priddis to win before the season started, you would have been quoted odds well over $100. On Monday night, the best odds available were around $40 to win and $10 to place. Not bad.
2013 Brownlow Medal Results – Top 10
|Gary Ablett||Gold Coast||28|
Gary Ablett has won his second Brownlow Medal and is in my opinion one of the most deserving winners in recent history. His 2013 season was arguably his best ever, although he has been the best player in the competition for a very long time, this year he added a record 5th MVP award to his medal collection, as well as another club best and fairest award. I think he should have polled more, but the only thing that matters is he finished with the most votes on the night.
Gary Ablett becomes the first player from the Gold Coast Suns to win a Charlie. He was heavily backed in the pre-season, during the season and after the season. He was deservedly the short priced favourite on the night and in an extremely tight finish. Ablett was 2 votes behind Selwood going into the final round, Joel wasn’t awarded a single vote, while Gary was given 3 votes by the umpires in the final round of the year when Gold Coast defeated Greater Western Sydney by 83 points, Gazza had 33 possessions and kicked 4.1. This placed him 1 vote clear of ex Geelong teammate Joel Selwood, and a very deserving winner of one the league’s most prestigeous awards for the second time in his career.
2012 Brownlow Medal Results – Top 10
|Sam Mitchell *||Hawthorn||26|
|Gary Ablett||Gold Coast||24|
|Lenny Hayes||St Kilda||19|
Jobe Watson was a well deserving winner of the 2012 Brownlow medal, finishing with 30 votes – 4 votes clear of Sam Mitchell, who was ineligible and Trent Cotchin who both finished with 26 votes. Both Cotchin and Mitchell had great years, however Sam Mitchell was not eligible for the award due to a second controversial ruling in consecutive years.
2011 Brownlow Medal Results – Top 10
|Sam Mitchell *||Hawthorn||30|
|Nick Dal Santo||St Kilda||28|
|Matthew Boyd||Western Bulldogs||24|
|Gary Ablett||Gold Coast||23|
|Lance Franklin *||Hawthorn||20|
|Matt Priddis||West Coast||19|
Chris Judd was an unbackable favourite heading into the 2011 Brownlow, but he didn’t manage to live up to expectations. After last years poor polling and an injury affected season, Dane Swan was paying $16 to win the Brownlow medal on the night. In a strange turn of events, Last year Dane Swan (like Chris Judd this year) was too short to back and ended up being out-polled by Chris Judd. Fortunes were reversed in an upset that defies all logic and reason.
2010 Brownlow Medal Results – Top 10
|Lenny Hayes||St Kilda||19|
|Travis Boak||Port Adelaide||16|
It’s fair to say that Chris Judd was just as shocked as the rest of the country when he polled the most votes to win the Brownlow in 2010. Dane Swan was unbackable at less than $2, Gary Ablett was the only other player paying less than $10 and either were, in my opinion, much more worthy of the award than Chris Judd. Especially considering the fact many believed he should not have been eligible for the best and fairest player that year (or any year, in this writers not so humble opinion).
Statistics, information and resources
- FootyWire’s Brownlow Medal Page
My favourite resource site for checking past statistics on the Charlie.
Past Brownlow Medal Winners & Total Votes
|2014||Matthew Priddis||West Coast||26|
|2013||Gary Ablett||Gold Coast||28|
|2008||Adam Cooney||Western Bulldogs||24|
|2005||Ben Cousins||West Coast Eagles||20|
|2004||Chris Judd||West Coast Eagles||30|
|2002||Simon Black||Brisbane Lions||25|
|2001||Jason Akermanis||Brisbane Lions||23|
|1998||Robert Harvey||St Kilda||32|
|1997||Robert Harvey *||St Kilda||26|
|1996||Michael Voss *||Brisbane Bears||21|
For the best and fairest winners prior to 1995, check here.
Latest Brownlow Medal News
- 2015 AFL Brownlow Medal Betting Odds Wednesday, 25 February 2015
The 2015 AFL Premership season is just around the corner, now is the perfect time to get a look at the players you’re considering having a punt on to win this years Brownlow Medal. As usual, I’ve comp. […]
- Brownlow, Brownlow on the wall, who’s the fairest of them all? Friday, 28 August 2015
It clearly didn’t sit well with the AFL community that three relatively minor incidents could cost someone the Brownlow Medal. We can only imagine the outrage had Nat Fyfe been given his third fine. […]
- Stats suggest Nat Fyfe would need the best start to a season ever to win 2015 Brownlow Medal Thursday, 27 August 2015
- Brownlow Medal race blown open with Fyfe grounded Thursday, 27 August 2015
The Brownlow medal hopes of Nat Fyfe have received a blow with the star Fremantle midfielder ruled out of the final two rounds of the AFL regular season because of a leg injury. Fyfe will miss games a. […]
- Brownlow Medal race opens up after Fremantle favourite Nat Fyfe sidelined with leg injury Thursday, 27 August 2015
The race for the Brownlow Medal looks set to be a close-run thing now that favourite Nat Fyfe will miss the final two games of the home-and-away season with a leg injury. Most pundits had all but awar. […]
- Brownlow Medal eligibility rules are really not all that fair, says Mark Ricciuto Wednesday, 26 August 2015
Danger zone … The incident between Nat Fyfe and Ben Jacobs that could have cost the Fremantle star a Brownlow Medal. Picture: Michael Klein TIMES have changed, the game has changed and the meaning o. […]
- Brownlow Medal favourite Nat Fyfe ruled out for rest of AFL regular season Wednesday, 26 August 2015
Dockers player suffering from inflammation in fibula Will not return for two weeks, but expected back for finals Nat Fyfe won’t be seen for Fremantle until the AFL finals series kicks off after suff. […]
- Brownlow Medal 2015: Nat Fyfe injured, would have to defy history to claim 2015 AFL top honour Wednesday, 26 August 2015
HE PRODUCED one of the best half-season individual campaigns the AFL world has ever seen. But after a slight drop off in form, a two-week absence due to a thigh injury and, now, another two-week injur. […]
- Nat Fyfe remains in Brownlow medal contention after being cleared of rough conduct in the Fremantle Dockers’ clash with North Melbourne Monday, 24 August 2015
Fremantle star Nat Fyfe is in the clear but Hawthorn skipper Luke Hodge can accept a two-match ban from the AFL match review panel for his bump on Port Adelaide’s Chad Wingard. Fyfe, the hot Brownlow. […]
- Fyfe hottest medal favourite in a decade Monday, 18 May 2015
Raging Brownlow Medal favourite Nat Fyfe has thrown his full support behind the revamped match review panel system after his hopes of winning the league’s highest individual honour were kept alive y. […]
- Fremantle star Nat Fyfe preserves Brownlow eligibility after tripping fine Monday, 18 May 2015
Nat Fyfe’s Brownlow Medal eligibility is intact after his trip at the weekend was deemed only worthy of a fine by the match review panel, while Steve Johnson escaped penalty altogether for contact to. […]
- Nat Fyfe retains Brownlow Medal eligibility despite tripping penalty Monday, 18 May 2015
May 18, 2015, 1 p.m. UPDATE: Fremantle midfielder Nat Fyfe will be free to play his 100th game on Saturday after he was ordered to pay a $1000 fine by the Match Review Panel.
- Freo's Fyfe fined for trip Monday, 18 May 2015
UPDATE: Nat Fyfe’s Brownlow Medal chances are alive after he was given a fine for tripping Western Bulldog Koby Stevens at Etihad Stadium yesterday.