Brownlow Medal Betting
Formally called the Chas Brownlow Trophy but commonly known as the Brownlow Medal (and informally as “Charlie”) is awarded to the best and fairest player during the regular AFL football season. For those who don’t know how the Brownlow medalist is chosen, after each match the officiating umpires of every game convene and decide who the three most influential players of the game were. The umpires give 3 votes to the most influential player of the match, 2 votes to the second and a single vote for the third best player on ground.
The Brownlow is arguably the most prestigious award for an individual player in the AFL. It is widely acknowledged in the media as the highest individual honour in the sport of Australian Rules Football, however many Aussie rules football supporters consider the Leigh Matthews Trophy, more commonly known as the AFLPA‘s MVP Award is a more accurate reflection of the best player of the year as it is voted on by current players instead of umpires.
Brownlow Medal night is held on the Monday night before the Grand Final. Check your local TV guide for the exact date and time of the Red Carpet and the Live Brownloe Medal Count which is usually performed by the CEO of the AFL, Andrew Demetriou.
My Tips for Betting on the Brownlow
At the beginning of each year, there are always some players at great odds to take home the Brownlow Medal. Here are some things to take into account when trying to find a roughie for the Charlie.
- Bet on players in teams that will feature in the top 8.
Generally speaking, the winner of the Charlie will be from a team in the top 8.
- Pick players that don’t have too much team competition.
Being able to identify stand-out players in average to good teams can be an absolute gold-mine in tipping both the Brownlow medalist winner, and the more exotic betting options such as win/place, top 5 and most votes from each team type betting.
- Select players who will play in the midfield.
Many people call the Brownlow a “midfielders medal”, as those who play in the forward line, ruck or in defense rarely get noticed as much as the major ball-winners. Historically, midfielders poll a large percentage more votes than players in any other position. As the adage goes, the game is won and lost in the midfield.
- Find midfielders that are likely to avoid a hard tag.
Some outstanding players can handle a hard tag, while others will benefit in Brownlow votes from having a team-mate who’s considered more damaging by the opposition coach, therefore avoiding the first tag and having more room to gather the pill and catch the eyes of the umpires.
- Take a punt on breakout contenders.
In order to get the very best odds possible on the Brownlow medal, you need to place your bets before the season starts, or at the very latest, during the first several weeks of the fixture. Watching the pre-season games can give you a rough idea about a player entering their 5th or 6th year of regular footy who has had a role change, or is about to step up into the true ‘elite’ players of the game.
- Look at durability over past seasons.
Some players are a lot more durable than others, and one missed game through injury may very well cost your player an addition to the trophy cabinet. Obviously, you don’t want players that have a history of reports and suspensions as the medal is awarded to the best and fairest player of the year. If a player is suspended, they are disqualified from winning the award, even if they are voted the best player of the year.
- Look at recent polling history.
This is especially true if the votes and/or team are on the rise. Some players just don’t attract the attention of umpires, or may be fairly or unfairly treated differently due to the umpires’ perception or public image of a player. Others seem to nearly get a vote for simply stepping onto the field. Research how many votes a player has won in past years and see if there is a trend upwards. If there is also a probability of getting more votes due to retirements, role changes, more experience and so on, you may have found yourself a good candidate.
- Look closely at the exotic betting markets.
I made a killing a few years ago with multis. If you can find a bookmaker that will accept multi-bets on the most votes per team, do your research and you can almost guarantee that there will be a standout player in each team that is highly likely to finish with the most votes for their club. I would leave out some clubs with several star players who all attract a lot of votes such as Collingwood, Hawthorn, Geelong and Sydney, but the teams on the lower end of the ladder are usually very easy to predict who will poll the most votes for their club.
- Don’t discount Brownlow place betting.
If you’ve ever had a bet on a player who’s finished 2nd or 3rd then you will feel my pain. The good thing is, however, all online bookmakers allow you to bet on a player to come in a place. Depending on the bookmaker, this could be the Top 3 or the Top 5 place-getters. The odds are 1/4 of the win odds, which if you get your bets on early in the season, can still give you a good return on investment. I highly recommend place bets after several successive years of winning a lot more than my initial Brownlow fund outlay, thanks in part to only losing a single place bet.
2013 Brownlow Medal Results – Top 10
|Gary Ablett||Gold Coast||28|
Gary Ablett has won his second Brownlow Medal and is in my opinion one of the most deserving winners in recent history. His 2013 season was arguably his best ever, although he has been the best player in the competition for a very long time, this year he added a record 5th MVP award to his medal collection, as well as another club best and fairest award. I think he should have polled more, but the only thing that matters is he finished with the most votes on the night.
Gary Ablett becomes the first player from the Gold Coast Suns to win a Charlie. He was heavily backed in the pre-season, during the season and after the season. He was deservedly the short priced favourite on the night and in an extremely tight finish. Ablett was 2 votes behind Selwood going into the final round, Joel wasn’t awarded a single vote, while Gary was given 3 votes by the umpires in the final round of the year when Gold Coast defeated Greater Western Sydney by 83 points, Gazza had 33 possessions and kicked 4.1. This placed him 1 vote clear of ex Geelong teammate Joel Selwood, and a very deserving winner of one the league’s most prestigeous awards for the second time in his career.
2012 Brownlow Medal Results – Top 10
|Sam Mitchell *||Hawthorn||26|
|Gary Ablett||Gold Coast||24|
|Lenny Hayes||St Kilda||19|
Jobe Watson was a well deserving winner of the 2012 Brownlow medal, finishing with 30 votes – 4 votes clear of Sam Mitchell, who was ineligible and Trent Cotchin who both finished with 26 votes. Both Cotchin and Mitchell had great years, however Sam Mitchell was not eligible for the award due to a second controversial ruling in consecutive years.
2011 Brownlow Medal Results – Top 10
|Sam Mitchell *||Hawthorn||30|
|Nick Dal Santo||St Kilda||28|
|Matthew Boyd||Western Bulldogs||24|
|Gary Ablett||Gold Coast||23|
|Lance Franklin *||Hawthorn||20|
|Matt Priddis||West Coast||19|
Chris Judd was an unbackable favourite heading into the 2011 Brownlow, but he didn’t manage to live up to expectations. After last years poor polling and an injury affected season, Dane Swan was paying $16 to win the Brownlow medal on the night. In a strange turn of events, Last year Dane Swan (like Chris Judd this year) was too short to back and ended up being out-polled by Chris Judd. Fortunes were reversed in an upset that defies all logic and reason.
2010 Brownlow Medal Results – Top 10
|Lenny Hayes||St Kilda||19|
|Travis Boak||Port Adelaide||16|
It’s fair to say that Chris Judd was just as shocked as the rest of the country when he polled the most votes to win the Brownlow in 2010. Dane Swan was unbackable at less than $2, Gary Ablett was the only other player paying less than $10 and either were, in my opinion, much more worthy of the award than Chris Judd. Especially considering the fact many believed he should not have been eligible for the best and fairest player that year (or any year, in this writers not so humble opinion).
Statistics, information and resources
- FootyWire’s Brownlow Medal Page
My favourite resource site for checking past statistics on the Charlie.
Past Brownlow Medal Winners & Total Votes
|2013||Gary Ablett||Gold Coast||28|
|2008||Adam Cooney||Western Bulldogs||24|
|2005||Ben Cousins||West Coast Eagles||20|
|2004||Chris Judd||West Coast Eagles||30|
|2002||Simon Black||Brisbane Lions||25|
|2001||Jason Akermanis||Brisbane Lions||23|
|1998||Robert Harvey||St Kilda||32|
|1997||Robert Harvey *||St Kilda||26|
|1996||Michael Voss *||Brisbane Bears||21|
For the best and fairest winners prior to 1995, check here.
Latest Brownlow Medal News
- 2014 AFL Brownlow Medal Betting Odds Sunday, 26 January 2014
My tips for the 2014 AFL Brownlow Medal, can Gary Ablett claim his third Charlie and go back-to-back? Get the best odds from Aussies top online bookies right here.
- Peter Moore hopes son goes to old club Tuesday, 11 March 2014
Former Collingwood captain and dual Brownlow medallist Peter Moore is hopeful his talented son Darcy follows his footsteps and is taken by his old club as a father-son priority selection. “I am not al. […]
- Dockers ready for Pies’ midfield warfare Monday, 10 March 2014
Lyon said Brownlow medal fancy Fyfe (knee) and forward Hayden Ballantyne (corked leg) were also ready to return. But ruckman Zac Clarke (knee) will almost certainly miss out, while new recruit Colin S. […]
- History has a message for NRL Monday, 10 March 2014
Like many, McCormack has a passion for sporting history – and obviously listened to like-minded people when it came to the issue of trying to dump Robertson Oval as the … much the same as the brutal. […]
- Gold Coast Suns 2014 season preview Monday, 10 March 2014
FOR the first time in their existence, Gold Coast will head into an AFL season with a weight of expectation upon them. Last year’s eight-win campaign has catapulted the Suns from also-rans into finals. […]
- Ablett set for contract extension negotiations Thursday, 6 March 2014
Ablett took out his second Brownlow Medal last season after winning in 2009 for Geelong, and has won three consecutive best and fairest awards at the Suns following two in his time with the Cats. The. […]
- A primer on equalisation in the AFL (Part II) Thursday, 6 March 2014
Under the luxury tax system, Brownlow Medal winner Gary Ablett Jr’s value would increase by 50 percent. (Photo: Michael Willson/AFL Media). In yesterday’s first part of this series, I hinted that wh. […]
- Season a race in three, say AFL captains Wednesday, 5 March 2014
Newly-appointed Collingwood captain Scott Pendlebury was the choice of four captains to win the Brownlow Medal, with three captains apiece plumping for Gold Coast’s Gary Ablett and Adelaide’s Patrick. […]
- AFL captains pick Hawthorn, Fremantle, Sydney as likely grand finalists Wednesday, 5 March 2014
New Collingwood captain Scott Pendlebury was the most popular Brownlow Medal fancy, attracting votes from four of his counterparts. Last year’s winner Gary Ablett and Adelaide star Patrick Dangerfield. […]
- Dane Swan re-signs with Magpies Saturday, 1 February 2014
Brownlow Medal winner Dane Swan has re-signed with Collingwood, linking him to the club until the end of the 2016 season.
- Mitchell plunge for Brownlow Saturday, 21 September 2013
Hawthorn midfielder Sam Mitchell has been backed to upset Gold Coast superstar Gary Ablett in Monday night’s Brownlow Medal count after a professional punter tipped the Hawk to win the game’s highest. […]
- Mrs Judd revels in parenthood Sunday, 7 April 2013
At the Brownlow Medal back in 2004, a fresh-faced Rebecca Judd, nee Twigley, turned heads on national television when she stepped on to the red carpet wearing a sleek and daring red dress by Perth des. […]
- Naitanui's girl shines in Brownlow debut Monday, 24 September 2012
It was an impressive Brownlow Medal debut for Nic Naitanui’s media shy girlfriend Elle Demasi, who looked at right at home on the red carpet in a flowing dress designed by Aurelio Costarella.