Brownlow Medal Betting

The Chas Brownlow Trophy, better known as the Brownlow Medal (and informally as “Charlie”), is awarded to the “best and fairest” player in the AFL during the regular season as determined by votes cast by the officiating umpires after each game. It’s arguably the most prestigious award for individual players in the AFL. It is also widely acknowledged as the highest individual honour in the sport of Australian Rules Football. Much of the football supporting public consider the Leigh Matthews Trophy, which is awarded to the Most Valuable Player of the year and is voted on by the AFL Players Association, to be a more accurate reflection of the best player of the year.

2013 Brownlow Medal Odds

I will be updating the odds for the 2013 Brownlow Medal throughout the season, check out my AFL Betting Odds Blog Posts for the latest odds and info on this years Charlie.

Tips for Betting on the Brownlow

At the beginning of each year, there are always some players at great odds to take home the Brownlow Medal. Here are some things to take into account when trying to find a roughie for the Charlie.

• Bet on players in teams that will feature in the top 8.
  Generally speaking, the winner of the Charlie will be from a team in the top 8.
• Pick players that don’t have too much team competition.
  Being able to identify stand-out players in average to good teams can be an absolute gold-mine in tipping both the Brownlow medalist winner, and the more exotic betting options such as win/place, top 5 and most votes from each team type betting.
• Select players who will play in the midfield.
  Many people call the Brownlow a “midfielders medal”, as those who play in the forward line, ruck or in defense rarely get noticed as much as the major ball-winners. Historically, midfielders poll a large percentage more votes than players in any other position. As the adage goes, the game is won and lost in the midfield.
• Find midfielders that are likely to avoid a hard tag.
  Some outstanding players can handle a hard tag, while others will benefit in Brownlow votes from having a team-mate who’s considered more damaging by the opposition coach, therefore avoiding the first tag and having more room to gather the pill and catch the eyes of the umpires.
• Take a punt on breakout contenders.
  In order to get the very best odds possible on the Brownlow medal, you need to place your bets before the season starts, or at the very latest, during the first several weeks of the fixture. Watching the pre-season games can give you a rough idea about a player entering their 5th or 6th year of regular footy who has had a role change, or is about to step up into the true ‘elite’ players of the game.
• Look at durability over past seasons.
  Some players are a lot more durable than others, and one missed game through injury may very well cost your player an addition to the trophy cabinet. Obviously, you don’t want players that have a history of reports and suspensions as the medal is awarded to the best and fairest player of the year. If a player is suspended, they are disqualified from winning the award, even if they are voted the best player of the year.
• Look at recent polling history.
  This is especially true if the votes and/or team are on the rise. Some players just don’t attract the attention of umpires, or may be fairly or unfairly treated differently due to the umpires’ perception or public image of a player. Others seem to nearly get a vote for simply stepping onto the field. Research how many votes a player has won in past years and see if there is a trend upwards. If there is also a probability of getting more votes due to retirements, role changes, more experience and so on, you may have found yourself a good candidate.

2012 Brownlow Medal Results – Top 10

Jobe Watson was a well deserving winner of the 2012 Brownlow medal, finishing with 30 votes – 4 votes clear of Sam Mitchell, who was ineligible and Trent Cotchin who both finished with 26 votes. Both Cotchin and Mitchell had great years, however Sam Mitchell was not eligible for the award due to a second controversial ruling in consecutive years.

2011 Brownlow Medal Results – Top 10

Chris Judd was an unbackable favourite heading into the 2011 Brownlow, but he didn’t manage to live up to expectations. After last years poor polling and an injury affected season, Dane Swan was paying $16 to win the Brownlow medal on the night. In a strange turn of events, Last year Dane Swan (like Chris Judd this year) was too short to back and ended up being out-polled by Chris Judd. Fortunes were reversed in an upset that defies all logic and reason.

2010 Brownlow Medal Results – Top 10

It’s fair to say that Chris Judd was just as shocked as the rest of the country when he polled the most votes to win the Brownlow in 2010. Dane Swan was unbackable at less than $2, Gary Ablett was the only other player paying less than $10 and either were, in my opinion, much more worthy of the award than Chris Judd. Especially considering the fact many believed he should not have been eligible for the best and fairest player that year (or any year, in this writers not so humble opinion).

Statistics, information and resources

• FootyWire’s Brownlow Medal Page
  My favourite resource site for checking past statistics on the Charlie.

Past Brownlow Medal Winners & Total Votes

For the best and fairest winners prior to 1995, check here.

Latest Brownlow Medal News