Top Odds for the Coleman Medal Winner

Punters are extremely lucky to have this years Coleman Medal ladder so close at the top for this time of the year, it’s been one of the closest years heading into the AFL finals in years, just a few weeks ago the prospect of a small forward winning the Coleman was a real chance. Now the bookmakers (and their odds suggest) that Jack has it in the bag, so to speak, but believe me, this is still a 4 horse race and anything can happen in football. An injury in the first quarter, torrential rain or gusty wind, simply playing a shocker of a game, a massive upset which leads to very few opportunities and poor delivery, double and triple teaming by the opposition simply to prevent you scoring goals, even if the goals are given to other team members, a goal kicker being unusually inaccurate… and the list goes on.

While I said anything can happen in football, it’s pretty much a certainty at this point in time that the 2018 Coleman Medal winner will be one of the following four players. It’s obvious that the favourite deserves to be Jack Riewoldt, the in-form and almost unstoppable Tigers are peaking at the right time this year and they’re eager to defend their premiership and having Jack as the AFL’s leading goalkicker would please the team plenty if they’re also to go on and win the ultimate prize – the 2018 AFL Premiership Cup.

One of these 4 will be the 2018 Coleman Medal Winner

1. Jack Riewoldt – Richmond – 60 Goals

Deserves to be the favourite but those odds are ridiculous. Unless you already have a bet on Jack, I would suggest that you didn’t bet on him right now. He could go into some multi’s, but even then, he’s not going to add much value – and what if he loses – how would you feel then?

Jack Riewoldt is currently in the lead, at the very top of the Coleman ladder with 60 goals, 31 behinds with a decent average of 2.9 goals a game. Looking at those behind numbers proves that Jack’s a pretty accurate kick for goal as well. Richmond are playing the Bulldogs this week, and saying that they aren’t performing as well as we’d hoped is an understatement. Whatever it is that’s happened since their grand final win in 2016, every team in the comp would probably be trying to figure out what happened just as much as the Bulldogs are, if nothing else simply to prevent it happening to them. It doesn’t look like they’ve put the cue in the rack just yet, though. The ‘dogs have won their last 3 matches, but two of those teams aren’t really worth mentioning, the other team, the Kangaroos, aren’t known for their consistency. With all that said, if the Bulldogs want to stop Jack from making the 2018 Coleman Medal win a certainty, their young defenders, alongside Dale Morris are going to need to help prevent one of the best contested marking players in the game.

2. Ben Brown – North Melbourne – 58 Goals

If he’s on, he can easily overtake Jack. If he’s not, he might not score a single goal. One of Brown’s main weaknesses has been his inconsistency. If he was as consistent as the other three players in the final stretch to winning the Coleman, he’d most likely be a few lengths in front at the final turn and not looking like tiring at all (excuse the horse racing terminology). Instead he’s had three games where he’s scored donuts, and three games with only a single sausage roll. That’s not good enough for a player of his ability.

Ben Brown has been a shining light for the Kangaroos this year, when he’s on. When he’s not, a lot of supporters are reminded about some of his earlier years and why the coaches persisted with him. He’s offered his team a donut 3 times this year in losing games and that’s just not good enough as a key forward on the kind of salary he would be taking home. On the other hand, there’s been 10 games where he’s kicked 4+ goals, the team lost 4 of those. So it isn’t a case of Brown performing well and the team wins, but it does go a long way to helping the team win if he can impact the scoreboard more consistently. The good news is the ‘roos play the last game of the round, so He’ll know exactly how many he needs to kick – on second thought, perhaps that’s a bad thing. St. Kilda don’t look like they’ll make it easy for him to kick a big bag, this week Brown could kick anywhere between 0 and 10 goals, whatever he kicks this week, if he’s going to be half a chance, he’ll need to improve on his 2.16 goal average.

3. Tom Hawkins – Geelong – 56 Goals

Geelong are in a precarious position right now, only a few weeks ago things were looking rosy for them. He’s playing at home which is a huge advantage, I wouldn’t put it past him to kick a few but perhaps not quite enough to take the lead in the race for the Coleman.

Tom Hawkins is ready to strike and win if he can have another day out. Currently on 56.27 and playing the Gold Coast Suns at the Cats home ground, the GMHBA Stadium definitely helps the big marking forward’s chance of winning the Coleman. The main concern of mine, and most other punters, is that Tomahawk has relied on a few massive bags of 6 last week and 7 each in consecutive games in rounds 18 and 19. Kicking another big bag this week may not be as easy. Gold Coast have beaten the favoured Geelong side twice in their last five meetings, the Cats have also lost quite a few winnable games this year, on the flip side of the coin, most of their losses have come from teams firmly inside the top 8. Finally, it wasn’t that long ago that the Suns upset an overconfident Sydney Swans at the SCG in round 18.

4. Lance Franklin – Sydney – 57 Goals

Expect anything from Buddy, he could kick 10 against the Hawks with their young defence, at those crazy odds he’s definitely worth a small bet, even though I barrack for the Hawks and there is a lot riding on this game, I could definitely see Buddy kicking a lot of goals if they win the clearances.

Lance “Buddy” Franklin looks like the major danger to me at the moment. Buddy is sitting on 57 goals, playing against his now ancient former club at home on the small SCG. The last time Franklin played the Hawks at the SCG – Round 10, 2017, he kicked 5.1, if he repeated or improved on that score it would put him on 62 goals. Depending on how the game plays out and considering just how important this game is to both teams top 4 aspirations, it wouldn’t be surprising to many people if he kicked even more than the last time he played.

Best Odds from Leading Bookmaker: Ladbrokes

Jack Riewoldt: $1.50

Ben Brown: $4.00

Tom Hawkins: $5.00

Lance Franklin: $21.00

At those odds, it seems pretty sure the bookmakers already think Riewoldt’s name is written on the Coleman Medal. If you’re anything like me, you will see some value in this market. I wouldn’t be putting too much on anyone here, but a unit on Franklin looks overs – he’s known to kick big bags on small grounds, he thrives on pressure and loves big moments in games of footy – taking the lead from one of Riewoldt or Hawkins with only Brown to play may just help inspire him to play a blinder. He’d only need to kick 2 more than Brown to win outright.

Good Luck, and Happy Punting!
Aussie Punter

These odds were correct at the time of posting and are subject to change

No matter who you choose to bet on, or if you decide not to have a punt at all, just remember to have fun, enjoy yourself and stop if you think you’re no longer in control.

2015 Coleman Medal Winner Betting Odds

With the 2015 AFL Premiership season nearly upon us, now is the perfect time to get your bets on both the Coleman medal winner in order to maximize the value of your bets and ensure you get the very best odds available.


Free tips for picking the Coleman medal winner

Since the Coleman is awarded to the player who kicks the most goals in the regular AFL season, the leading goalscorer will play in the forward half of the ground and usually, but not always, comes from one of the sides in the top 8. Two notable recent exceptions to this are Jack Riewoldt and Brendan Fevola.

One of the most important tips is the look closely at the team the player plays for. Has anything changed, such as retirements or trades opening up a key position for someone to step into? Is their consistent team improvement indicating there will be more opportunities for goals to be kicked? The leading goalscorer often comes from one of the successful teams with a good offensive game plan. Look at the players last few years and see if there is a trend in either direction. Are they kicking more goals, or less? Often with team improvement comes more goals for the forwards.


Top 3 favourites for the leading goalscorer award

The usual suspects are favourite to take out this years Coleman Medal and all are in the race.

Lance Franklin – It’s no surprise that last 3 time Coleman medalist, including last years winner tops the list. “Buddy” finished his first year in the red and white with a Coleman Medal, equal second in the Bronwlow Medal and was one of Sydney’s best performers in their Grand Final loss. Sydney are expected to finish highly again this year and there’s every chance that Buddy could win a fourth in his second season with the Sydney Swans.

Jarryd Roughead – Last years runner-up is one of Hawthorn’s most valuable players and their leading goal kicker last year. Last year one of Hawthorn’s strengths was their ability to share the goals around, making matching up on them difficult. Stopping one player from scoring meant that another would step up. 3 of last years top 10 goal scorers were from the Hawks, Roughead (64), Jack Gunston and Luke Breust (54 each).

Jack Riewoldt – Richmond are expected to improve on their ladder position in 2015 after finishing off last season with a streak of 9 wins from its last 9 games. This included a nail-biting 3 point win against Sydney in round 23 before getting beaten by Port Adelaide in the elimination final the following week. If the Tigers improve as expected and they can successfully implement their aggressive game plan, Riewoldt is in with a good chance. If Richmond finish 9th, he’s no chance.

My tip: If you’re looking for some value, which I always do, look no further than last years equal runner-up Jay Schulz. Anything over $10 is overs in my opinion. Port Adelaide are expected to improve again this year after showing massive improvement in 2014, and Schulz was only 3 goals short last year. $21 with UniBet is great value. He’s also paying $6 to place (1st-3rd).

These are the odds during the presason, before any home and away matches have been played. It’s interesting to look back during the season to see how the odds have fluctuated and who the favourites were at the start of the premiership season.


Best Coleman Medal Betting Odds

The online bookmaker(s) with the best odds are listed in bold.

Player Name Ladbrokes Australia CrownBet William Hill Australia Bookmaker.com.au Bet365 Palmerbet Unibet
Lance Franklin 4.00 4.25 4.25 4.00 4.25 4.20 4.25
Jarryd Roughead 7.00 7.00 8.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 8.00
Jack Riewoldt 9.00 10 9.00 9.00 8.00 8.00 9.00
Josh Kennedy 9.00 8.00 10 9.00 9.00 8.00 11
Tom Hawkins 11 10 12 11 12 12 13
Taylor Walker 13 12 12 13 11 12 21
Jay Schulz 15 14 12 15 16 15 21
Kurt Tippett 15 12 14 15 13 14 21
Jack Gunston 17 15 14 17 15 15 21
Travis Cloke 17 17 15 17 18 15 21
Jeremy Cameron 21 17 21 21 17 16 34
Jake Carlisle 26 26 21 26 NA 34 26
Matthew Pavlich 26 26 17 26 NA 26 21
Hayden Ballantyne 34 26 34 34 26 31 26
Nick Riewoldt 34 67 31 34 34 26 41
Luke Breust 41 51 34 41 51 21 51

These odds were correct at the time of posting and are subject to change.

Good Luck, and Happy Punting!
Aussie Punter

2015 AFL Brownlow Medal Betting Odds

This year is a great year for getting some great value on the winner of one of the most prestigious individual awards in Australian Rules Football, the Chas Brownlow Medal.

My Free Brownlow Medal Betting Tips

Hopefully by now we’re all over the shock of Matty Priddis’ well deserved but largely unexpected win last year, we move on to this year with some emerging young players who could definitely grab more of the umpires attention and maybe knock one or two of the older players off the mantle as being their teams’ most important player, at least in the eyes of the umpires.

The Brownlow Favourites Who Deserve It

The first few names that immediately come to mind when trying to predict the Brownlow Medal winner are the obvious stalwarts who have attracted lots of Brownlow votes in recent years such as previous winners Gary Ablett, Dane Swan, Jobe Watson and perennial place-getters Sam Mitchell and Joel Selwood. I’m not just going for the first thing that comes to mind though.

There’s no doubting Gary Ablett is still the best player in the league. While he is getting on in years, he’s showing no signs of slowing down. Even though he’s the outright favourite paying around $5, you probably won’t get any better odds at any other time of the year. After going down with a season ending injury in round 16 last year, he was 5 votes clear of everyone else in the competition. He is that much better and deserves to be the favourite to win. If you want to bet on him, my advice would be to bet on him now.

I like the look of Fremantle this year, who could afford to drop their star recruit Colin Sylvia to the WAFL for “failing to meet the clubs expectations”. If Freo have a good year, there is a good chance that young Nathan Fyfe could again poll well into the 20’s and there’s an equally good chance that he could be wearing a Brownlow Medal around his neck the week before the Grand Final.

Geelong are a team that consistently defy the odds and naysayers, people have been saying that they were past it and no chance to win a flag for several years now, but again they came within a whisker of a Preliminary final last year. Their captain and arguably their most consistent player Joel Selwood is still only 26 years old and has finished in the top 3 Brownlow vote count for the last 2 years. Definitely a chance but his odds are too short for my liking.

My Top 3 Up and Coming Brownlow Contenders

Robbie Gray was one of the most consistent performers at the tail end of last season and he finished 2014 1st in goal assists. Power captain, Travis Boak got most of the umpires attention but punters were flocking to Gray in droves towards the end of the year. He finished with a respectable 14 votes, however he only polled 3 votes once. If he can impress the umpires a little more and Port stay around the mark, which most are expecting, I think he’s a good chance with decent odds.

The two Brisbane Lions cubs received over 30 votes between them last year although one was at a different club. Tom Rockliff (15 Votes last year) and Dayne Beams (16 Votes last year whilst playing for Collingwood) are both 25 years old and are in the prime years of their respective careers, both have plenty of upside. The Lions should improve this year and if they can win the majority of their home games and snatch a few away games, I can see them making the eight. This could potentially provide one of these two young stars enough wins to end up with a Brownlow Medal at the end of the year and they’re both reasonably good value.

Players Whose Clubs May Make it Too Hard to Win

If there’s only one thing that Essendon fans can be happy about, it’s the improvement shown by Dyson Heppell. While there is definitely some uncertainty as to what will happen with Essendon this year, there’s no doubting the talent that this kid has shown and I think he’s going to be even better this year. It’s the uncertainty surrounding the Bombers that puts me off Heppell.

If Collingwood are to improve their ladder position, they’ll need Scott Pendlebury to step up even more. Swan is aging and his numbers were well down from his best last year, I doubt he’ll be able to have the impact on games he once had. They’ve also lost Dayne Beams to Brisbane. Pendles is a true match winner but will the Pies win enough games for him to earn a Brownlow?

Finally, the Sydney Swans, how they manage to fit all their stars in their salary cap is astonishing and we must give their football department credit for their aggressive trading and brilliant talent development. Personally, I would be wary about picking a player from a team such as Sydney, there are just so many quality players in that team who will share the votes.

Josh Kennedy, Luke Parker, Lance Franklin and Dan Hannebery are all in the top favourites to win the Charlie this year. This doesn’t necessarily mean that one of them won’t win, but personally I’d be looking elsewhere for value.


With the pre season about to begin, the players you may have had an eye on for a role change, especially the younger players who are now coming into their own in aging midfielders are likely to gain other punters, and bookmakers attention. Read all of the AFL team news and club training reports, especially if they mention any player that you’re considering having a punt on before you place any bets on the Brownlow. You want to make sure that any player you’re considering betting on to win the Charlie has had a good pre season that’s been uninterrupted. This simple tip is often overlooked by punters, but I think it’s important that whoever you’re betting on has had a solid, injury free pre season.

My final tip: If you browse through the lists of each club, you should be able to find the standout Brownlow vote getters in most teams, at least narrow it down to the top two or three. Do you think they’ll improve as a player this year or go backwards? What about their team?

Best Odds for the Brownlow Medal Favourites

As usual, the best odds are listed in bold text.

Player Name Ladbrokes Australia CrownBet William Hill Australia Bookmaker.com.au CentreBet LuxBet Tom Waterhouse Bet365
Gary Ablett 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 6.00
Nathan Fyfe 8.00 7.50 7.00 8.00 7.00 7.50 7.00 8.00
Joel Selwood 10 11 9.00 10 9.00 10 9.00 9.00
Patrick Dangerfield 11 13 12 11 12 9.00 12 11
Josh P Kennedy 21 12 21 21 21 15 21 17
Luke Parker 21 17 21 21 21 21 21 17
Scott Pendlebury 21 17 17 21 17 15 17 17
Tom Rockliff 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
Trent Cotchin 21 21 17 21 17 17 17 26
Dane Swan 26 26 41 26 41 41 41 51
Dyson Heppell 26 34 26 26 26 26 26 26
Jobe Watson 26 17 21 26 21 15 21 21
Lance Franklin 26 21 21 26 21 26 21 21
Matt Priddis 26 34 26 26 26 26 26 21
Robbie Gray 26 21 34 26 34 26 34 23
Travis Boak 26 21 26 26 26 26 26 26
Dayne Beams 31 21 26 31 26 34 26 26
Jordan Lewis 31 23 34 31 34 34 34 26
Sam Mitchell 31 26 21 31 21 21 21 23
Andrew Swallow 41 51 41 41 41 101 41 101
Daniel Hannebery 41 34 41 41 41 51 41 67

These odds were correct at the time of posting and are subject to change.

Good Luck, and Happy Punting!
Aussie Punter

Best 2014 AFL Grand Final Betting Odds

It’s that time of the year, the last Saturday in September. Every team in the competition wants to be playing in this game but only 2 teams can make it. This year it’s the Sydney Swans versus the Hawthorn Hawks, they played against each other in the 2012 grand final in which Sydney took home the silverware. When these two teams played on the same day a couple of years ago, Hawthorn were the outright favourites, but Sydney caused an upset to win by 10 points in a thrilling game of Aussie Rules football. This year, the Swans are the favourites and many people are saying that the Hawks will struggle to stop their forwards kicking a winning score. Ironically, the same thing was said a couple of years ago – except they were talking about Sydney being unable to stop the Hawthorn forward line. Since then, the Swans have added Kurt Tippett and Lance Franklin, while the hawks have picked up Brian Lake and Ben McEvoy. Will these 4 players make a big difference? I think each and every one has the ability to but we’ll have to wait and see.

The talk of the town is not unusual. The first season Buddy Franklin has played for the Swans he’s made it to a grand final, I think most fans will be less critical of the remarkable contract that he was given – for the time being at least. One man doesn’t make a team, but thankfully the Swans don’t rely on any single player, they have match winners all over the ground, as do the Hawks. But Buddy was playing for the Hawks in 2012, and while he didn’t play a terrible game, he didn’t have the impact that a lot of people expected him to, Ted Richards played a great game of football that day and never gave up trying. That’s the kind of attitude that will win in a grand final, never give up. If nothing else it will be interesting to see how he fares playing against his old team on the big stage, the last game of the year (unless of course the game finishes in a draw, *knocks on wood*) in which the winner is dubbed the best team of the season and goes away with the 2014 AFL Premiership Cup.

My Tips for the 2014 Grand Final

This is hard because I’m a Hawthorn supporter and I will not say that you should bet on Sydney to win, but I think it will be a close game and if the Hawks are to win, I doubt it will be by more than a couple of goals. I think they’ve got to kick over 100 points if they’re a realistic chance of winning which will be hard to do against the Swan because their entire team’s defense is as good as their offense, which is saying something because their forward line is one of the most formidable in the competition and can easily kick a big score if they get the ball inside 50 quickly.

I won’t tip either team to win outright, we all know that anything can happen in a Grand Final, but I’ll be having a few exotic bets myself. It’s hard to go past Buddy for the Norm Smith if Sydney end up winning, I can see him tearing the game apart in the middle and up forward, which is difficult for me to admit. On the other side of the coin, if Hawthorn win, we have some standout players who I think could be the difference. Obviously, Luke Hodge won the medal in 2008 and he could be instrumental again, but young Will Langford was one of the reasons we beat Port Adelaide last week in the preliminary final, I think he’s a good roughie to throw into the mix if you’re looking for value. Finally Jarryd Roughead, a star player and again, without his massive effort last week I don’t think we’d be playing in the grand final. He plays forward, midfield and in defense, if he has another game like last week, and Hawthorn win, I’d pencil him in.

Let’s get on with it then, shall we? Here are the best odds for the 2014 AFL Grand Final are listed below. The best odds available for each team from each online bookmaker are listed in bold text.

Best AFL Grand Final Winner Betting Odds

The best odds for each team from each online bookmaker are listed in bold text.

AFL Team Ladbrokes CrownBet LuxBet SportsBet SportingBet Australia Bookmaker.com.au Bet365 Tom Waterhouse
Sydney Swans 1.56 1.63 1.60 1.60 1.60 1.56 1.58 1.60
Hawthorn Hawks 2.50 2.35 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.50 2.45 $4.00*

These odds were correct at the time of posting and are subject to change.

Good Luck, Happy Punting and ‘carn the Hawks!

Best 2014 AFL Brownlow Medal Odds & Tips

Well, as I said in my January post 2014 preseason brownlow medal betting tips if Gary Ablett Jr. didn’t get injured or suspended, he’d win. This is the exact quote:

My tip for the 2014 Brownlow: I think if Gary Ablett stays fit and doesn’t get suspended will win. I’m happily betting on him at fixed odds of $7.50 and I expect to watch as his odds go down to even money as the season progresses. It’s very possible he will then be beaten by one vote in a nail-biting finish as he polls zero votes in the last game of the year, only needing 1 to win, but that’s gambling.

Unfortunately, since I forgot to knock on wood after typing the above, he got a season ending injury against Collingwood in round 16. At the time he was considered by everyone to be leading the Brownlow medal count by quite a large margin, nobody doubted he would go on to win his third Charlie. We’ll have to wait until Brownlow Medal night to find out if his arguably best year of football, up until the point he got injured will be enough to get him over the line and become just the fifth person in history to win the AFL’s best and fairest medal three times.

My Top 3 Brownlow Medal Tips for 2014

  1. Joel Selwood finished 1 vote behind ex team-mate Gazza after polling zero votes in his last game, was unlucky not to win last year and has a good chance of winning in 2014.
  2. Josh Kennedy from Sydney who is undoubtedly one of the best inside midfielders in the competition, with Sydney finishing with 17 wins and with Kennedy being instrumental in many of those, he’s sure to poll well.
  3. Gary Ablett would have won if he didn’t get injured, there is absolutely no doubting that. However, I am not convinved that he was far enough in front before going down with his season ending injury.
  4. My Smokie For a Top Five (or higher) Finish

    Hawthorn’s Jordan Lewis. While it’s unlikely that he will win although not impossible, he has been an underrated player for quite some time now, but with major vote getter Sam Mitchell out with injury for a large part of the year, Jordan Lewis stood up and no doubt would have got the attention of the umpires in quite a few of Hawthorn’s 17 wins. Although his stats seem to be a little down on average when Mitchell was out of the team, he could very well get 2 or 3 votes in some absolutely great games he played, especially towards the end of the year. If he picks up some early votes as well, I can see him finishing in the top 5. I think he deserves it, however, it is possible that I have my Hawthorn coloured glasses on here.

    The Best 2014 Brownlow Medal Betting Odds

    SportsBet is the internet bookie you want to bet if you’re going to get on one of the top 2 favourites, Selwood or Ablett. Alternatively, LuxBet have the best odds online for most of the outsiders, but (It’s worth noting that SportsBet is probably my current favourite bookmaker at present after a few changes in the online betting world has left some companies I used to have a lot of respect for, well, a little less respect for).

    As per usual, the best odds available for each team from each online bookmaker are listed in bold text.

    Player Name Ladbrokes BetEzy LuxBet SportsBet SportingBet Australia Bookmaker.com.au Bet365
    Joel Selwood 2.75 2.75 2.50 2.85 2.75 2.75 2.60
    Gary Ablett 3.75 3.50 3.50 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75
    Robbie Gray 7.00 6.50 8.00 7.00 6.00 7.00 6.00
    Josh Kennedy (Syd) 8.00 10 11 10 10 8.00 11
    Jordan Lewis 12 11 15 11 11 12 11
    Scott Pendlebury 15 15 21 13 15 15 13
    Dyson Heppell 17 15 17 11 15 17 12
    Lance Franklin 17 14 17 16 15 17 17
    Matt Priddis 17 11 21 12 15 17 13
    Trent Cotchin 34 26 21 34 34 34 34
    Travis Boak 41 41 81 41 41 41 41
    Dayne Beams 67 51 101 67 51 67 67

    These odds were correct at the time of posting and are subject to change.